FightChoice Intelligence Report

Donte Johnson
vs
Cesar Almeida

Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida

https://fightchoice.app/events/donte-johnson-vs-cesar-almeida-prediction-2026-11-14

Middleweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Donte Johnson steps into the octagon at UFC 334, he brings with him an unblemished record of 9-0, showcasing his prowess as a formidable middleweight contender. At 27 years old, Johnson is in his prime, boasting a striking accuracy of 42.6% and a remarkable takedown accuracy of 100%. In contrast, his opponent, the seasoned 38-year-old Cesar Almeida, holds a record of 7-3 but has seen better days, entering this bout on a two-fight skid. The height disparity favors Almeida, standing at 6'1" compared to Johnson’s 5'8", yet both fighters share the same reach of 74 inches, making this a battle of skill and strategy rather than physical dimensions.

The narrative echoes historical matchups like when Michael Morales faced Max Griffin, where a younger fighter outpaced an older veteran, and like Vitor Belfort’s decisive victory over Dan Henderson, where age played a key role in the outcome. Johnson's ability to control the octagon with an average of 66 seconds of control time per round paired with a staggering 80% finish rate suggests he can end fights decisively. Almeida’s experience may grant him insight, but it’s Johnson’s momentum and youthful vigor that could dictate the pace, making this clash a thrilling contest of rising talent versus seasoned grit.

#DonteJohnson #CesarAlmeida #UFC334 #Middleweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 26, 2026, 06:02 UTC

Model Breakdown
Donte Johnson Cesar Almeida
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 46.9% 53.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 70.8% 29.2%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 80.8% 19.2%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 100.0% 0.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 79.5% 20.5%
Ensemble 80.0% 20.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Donte Johnson, driven by strong indicators like Donte Johnson's age advantage and past prime status over Cesar Almeida, and Donte Johnson's superior win rate. Despite some models favoring Cesar Almeida on specific metrics like takedown accuracy, the combined prediction leans heavily towards Donte Johnson.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Donte Johnson, citing Donte Johnson's age advantage and higher win rate over Cesar Almeida, along with Cesar Almeida's lower Elo rating.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Donte Johnson, highlighting Donte Johnson's southpaw stance and height advantage over Cesar Almeida, despite Donte Johnson also being orthodox.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Donte Johnson
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

47% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 31 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 31 similar fights By submission *Based on 31 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Donte Johnson 43.9% 25.8% 10.3% 80.0%
Cesar Almeida 11.0% 6.5% 2.6% 20.0%
31 historical bouts 54.8% 32.3% 12.9% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Donte Johnson Cesar Almeida
Career Record 9-0 7-3
Height 5' 8" 6' 1"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 74" 74"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 27 38

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

31 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 31 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

55% Reached the judges
45% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 13% Submission 4:03 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Donte Johnson Cesar Almeida
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 1, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
Welterweight
Michael Morales Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Max Griffin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 9, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
Light Heavyweight
Vitor Belfort Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
70.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Dan Henderson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 21, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
Lightweight
Uros Medic Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.5
Strike accuracy
54.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Omar Morales
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2016
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Featherweight
Dooho Choi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.7s
Cub Swanson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Light Heavyweight
Zhang Mingyang Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
63
Strike accuracy
77.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
Anthony Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2024
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Middleweight
Bo Nickal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
63.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Paul Craig
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 4, 2025
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Welterweight
Punahele Soriano Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
72.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
36.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
251.7s
Nikolay Veretennikov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2020
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ian Heinisch Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
80%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Featherweight
Makwan Amirkhani Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
89.5s
Chris Fishgold
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2026
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Light Heavyweight
Iwo Baraniewski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
86.3s
Alonzo Menifield Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Middleweight
Eryk Anders
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.4
Strike accuracy
41.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
27.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45.2s
Lyoto Machida Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.4
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.6s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 7, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Middleweight
Vitor Belfort Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Dan Henderson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 2, 2019
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
Heavyweight
Jairzinho Rozenstruik Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Andrei Arlovski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 22, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
34.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Alexander Volkov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Donte Johnson Cesar Almeida UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 11 16.4 13.2
Strike accuracy 42.6% 60% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.5 0.1 0.4
Takedown accuracy 100% 33.3% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.1 0.2
Control time 66s 16.3s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.17 0.08 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.23 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 66.7% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 40.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 5 -2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 5 9 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 80.3% 39.4% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.6% 35.7% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 12.1% 24.9% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 7 10.92 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.5 1.31 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.73 0.27 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.43 0.43 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 0 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 83.3% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.0% 83.3% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 20.0% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 33.3% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 71.2% 77.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.1% 14.1% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 19.7% 8.9% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:41 10:12 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,544.7 1,497.0 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.055 0.047 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline —

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