FightChoice Intelligence Report

Drew Dober
vs
Chris Duncan

Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan

https://fightchoice.app/events/drew-dober-vs-chris-duncan-prediction-2026-11-14

Lightweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Drew Dober steps into the Octagon against Chris Duncan at UFC 334, fans can't help but see the striking contrast in their styles and trajectories. Dober, with a record of 15-11-1, is a seasoned fighter who thrives in high-pressure situations, boasting an impressive finish rate of 80%. At 38 years old, he may be on the decline, but his experience and power—evidenced by a 73.3% knockout win rate—make him a formidable opponent. Meanwhile, the 33-year-old Duncan, with a record of 6-2, is on the rise, showcasing a recent win rate of 80% and impressive striking accuracy at 46.2%. With a slight height and reach advantage, Duncan will look to leverage his youth and speed to control the tempo of the fight.

This matchup echoes historical showdowns like Francisco Trinaldo versus Muslim Salikhov, where the younger fighter capitalized on their momentum against a more experienced but declining opponent. Dober’s resilience will be tested against Duncan’s precision and grappling skills, as Duncan averages 0.8 takedowns per round and controls the ground for a solid 57.1 seconds. With the odds favoring Duncan heavily, this fight presents an exciting narrative of experience versus youthful vigor—will Dober's knockout power prevail, or will Duncan's sharp skills carry him through to victory?

#DrewDober #ChrisDuncan #UFC334 #Lightweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Drew Dober Chris Duncan
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 23.8% 76.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 29.2% 70.8%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 41.7% 58.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 18.2% 81.8%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 39.7% 60.3%
Ensemble 21.3% 78.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Chris Duncan, driven by Drew Dober's age and past prime status, and Chris Duncan's superior Elo rating and win rate. Despite some models noting Drew Dober's southpaw stance, the combined prediction leans towards Chris Duncan due to the overwhelming statistical advantages.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Chris Duncan, citing his higher win rate against Drew Dober and Drew Dober's age and past prime status.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Chris Duncan, based on his orthodox stance, higher Elo rating, and age advantage over Drew Dober.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Chris Duncan
78.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

40% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 288 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 288 similar fights By submission *Based on 288 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Drew Dober 12.3% 5.6% 3.3% 21.3%
Chris Duncan 45.7% 20.8% 12.3% 78.7%
288 historical bouts 58.0% 26.4% 15.6% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Drew Dober Chris Duncan
UFC Record 15-11-1 6-2
Height 5' 8" 5' 10"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 70" 71"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 38 33

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

288 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 288 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

58% Reached the judges
42% Ended early
26% KO/TKO 16% Submission 6:01 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Drew Dober Chris Duncan
85% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 5, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai
Welterweight
Francisco Trinaldo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
30.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.3s
Muslim Salikhov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
52.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.3s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 9, 2017
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
Welterweight
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
81.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
199s
Neil Magny
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 10, 2010
UFC 112: Invincible
Welterweight
Rick Story Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
198s
Nick Osipczak
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
68.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.3s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2015
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Lightweight
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.8
Takedown accuracy
90%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
176.8s
Anthony Pettis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.8
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.2s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 6, 2010
UFC 109: Relentless
Middleweight
Demian Maia Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
105.7s
Dan Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
21.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 17, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.7s
Ross Pearson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 17, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia
Welterweight
Dong Hyun Kim
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
35.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.7s
Colby Covington Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
53.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
203s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 22, 2012
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.8
Strike accuracy
17.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.4
Control time (Per Rnd)
40.8s
Demetrious Johnson Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.4
Strike accuracy
49.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2017
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Middleweight
Daniel Kelly Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
Rashad Evans
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 27, 2014
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Middleweight
Yoel Romero Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
Tim Kennedy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
34.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 15, 2008
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar
Lightweight
Kenny Florian Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
65s
Joe Stevenson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 11, 2022
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
Women's Flyweight
Valentina Shevchenko Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.4
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
Taila Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
53.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.6
Control time (Per Rnd)
105.8s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 28, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
Middleweight
Cezar Ferreira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
32.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
109s
Andrew Craig
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
23.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 17, 2024
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Welterweight
Ricky Glenn
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
13.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
70.7s
Song Kenan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
51.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 3, 2015
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ali Bagautinov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
25.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Drew Dober Chris Duncan UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 18.1 20.1 13.2
Strike accuracy 41% 46.2% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.2 0.8 0.4
Takedown accuracy 17% 40.6% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.0 0.2 0.2
Control time 32s 57.1s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.18 0.13 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.05 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 57.7% 89.3% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 26 28 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 63.2% 60.4% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 22.9% 22.7% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 13.9% 16.8% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.64 18.44 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.49 0.5 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.45 0.7 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.53 0.46 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 2 1.25 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 76.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 73.3% 56.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 6.7% 20.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 63.6% 66.7% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 79.7% 82.2% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.7% 6.9% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.6% 10.9% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:14 8:43 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,553.9 1,561.0 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.152 0.230 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak —

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