FightChoice Intelligence Report

Donte Johnson
vs
Baisangur Susurkaev

Donte Johnson vs Baisangur Susurkaev

https://fightchoice.app/events/donte-johnson-vs-baisangur-susurkaev-prediction-2026-11-14

Middleweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

At UFC 334, Donte Johnson and Baisangur Susurkaev, both undefeated with records of 9-0 and 12-0 respectively, are set to clash in a middleweight showdown that promises to be as thrilling as it is pivotal. Standing at 5'8" with a reach of 74 inches, Johnson will be at a significant height and reach disadvantage against the taller, 6'2" Susurkaev, who boasts a 79-inch reach. This matchup is a classic case of the grappler versus the striker, with Susurkaev's striking output averaging 24.5 significant strikes per round compared to Johnson's 11. However, Johnson has displayed impressive takedown accuracy at 100%, which could be crucial in neutralizing Susurkaev's striking prowess.

Historically, this fight reminds us of the UFC 155 bout between Yushin Okami and Alan Belcher, where Okami's grappling skills faced off against Belcher's striking. In that fight, it was the grappler who emerged triumphant, showing that effective strategy can often outweigh numerical advantages. With both fighters sharing a finish rate of 80%, fans can expect an explosive encounter, whether it ends in a knockout or submission, adding to the anticipation of how they will adapt their styles in the cage. As both fighters are at their peak, this matchup is not just about maintaining their perfect records but also about establishing dominance in the middleweight division.

#DonteJohnson #BaisangurSusurkaev #UFC334 #Middleweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Donte Johnson Baisangur Susurkaev
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 45.0% 55.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 55.1% 44.9%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 48.5% 51.5%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 43.3% 56.7%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 45.5% 54.5%
Ensemble 46.7% 53.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Donte Johnson's win streak and takedown accuracy are strong indicators, but Baisangur Susurkaev's reach and clinch striking edge, combined with calibration, lead the ensemble to favor him. The ENSEMBLE favors Baisangur Susurkaev (53%), despite Model ζ strongly favoring Donte Johnson.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Baisangur Susurkaev, citing his age advantage over Donte Johnson.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Baisangur Susurkaev, noting his reach advantage and orthodox stance against Donte Johnson.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Baisangur Susurkaev
53.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

49% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 288 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 288 similar fights By submission *Based on 288 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Donte Johnson 25.0% 14.8% 7.0% 46.7%
Baisangur Susurkaev 28.5% 16.8% 8.0% 53.3%
288 historical bouts 53.5% 31.6% 14.9% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Donte Johnson Baisangur Susurkaev
Career Record 9-0 12-0
Height 5' 8" 6' 2"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 74" 79"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 27 25

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

288 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 288 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

53% Reached the judges
47% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 15% Submission 5:08 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Donte Johnson Baisangur Susurkaev
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 29, 2012
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
Middleweight
Yushin Okami Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
160.3s
Alan Belcher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
21.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 12, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Women's Flyweight
Miranda Maverick Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
121s
Sabina Mazo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 11, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Bantamweight
Jonathan Martinez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
69.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
123s
Said Nurmagomedov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
60.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
87s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2010
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Welterweight
Diego Sanchez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
184.7s
Paulo Thiago
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2026
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Flyweight
Cody Durden
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Alessandro Costa Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.5s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2011
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57.3s
Kurt Pellegrino
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
39.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 12, 2026
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
Featherweight
Marwan Rahiki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
Tommy McMillen Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
37.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
97.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Middleweight
Marvin Vettori
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.2
Strike accuracy
50.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Roman Dolidze Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.2
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 12, 2025
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Women's Bantamweight
Hailey Cowan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.5
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
132s
Nora Cornolle Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.5s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2021
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Light Heavyweight
Eryk Anders Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
59.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
166.3s
Darren Stewart
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
56.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Featherweight
Alex Caceres Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
71.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.5s
SeungWoo Choi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
33.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 1, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
Welterweight
Dong Hyun Kim Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.3s
John Hathaway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
27.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
74.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 12, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Flyweight
Tim Elliott
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
68.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Deiveson Figueiredo Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 9, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Bantamweight
Ode Osbourne
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
47.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23s
Steve Erceg Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
37.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
95.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2015
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Welterweight
Johny Hendricks Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
90%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
222.7s
Matt Brown
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
46.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Donte Johnson Baisangur Susurkaev UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 11 24.5 13.2
Strike accuracy 42.6% 54% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.5 0.6 0.4
Takedown accuracy 100% 26.3% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.3 0.2
Control time 66s 66s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.17 0.13 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 100.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 5 5 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 5 5 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 80.3% 50.5% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.6% 32.1% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 12.1% 17.3% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 7 19.12 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.5 0 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.73 0.85 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.43 0.39 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 0.25 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 80.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.0% 40.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 20.0% 40.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 71.2% 82.7% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.1% 7.7% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 19.7% 9.7% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:41 10:57 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,544.7 1,545.9 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.055 0.053 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —

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