FightChoice Intelligence Report

Uros Medic
vs
Kevin Holland

Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland

https://fightchoice.app/events/uros-medic-vs-kevin-holland-prediction-2026-11-14

Welterweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Uros Medic steps into the octagon against Kevin Holland at UFC 334, the welterweight clash promises to be a thrilling showdown of contrasting styles. At 6'3", Holland wields a formidable 81-inch reach, giving him a significant advantage over Medic’s 71-inch reach. With both fighters standing at 170 lbs and sharing the same age of 33, it's the differences in their fight styles that will take center stage. Medic’s southpaw stance and impressive striking accuracy of 58.2% could allow him to land clean shots on Holland, who has a 50.3% accuracy but is known for his striking volume, averaging 18.4 significant strikes per round.

Historically, this matchup echoes the dynamic seen in UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa, where Gane’s reach and striking precision paved the way for a decisive victory. Medic, with a stunning 100% finish rate and an 85.7% knockout win rate, is on a four-fight win streak and is at the peak of his career, whereas Holland, with a more extensive record of 16-12-1, seems to be in a decline, which is reflected in the odds that favor Medic significantly. Fans will be on the edge of their seats as these two warriors bring their contrasting narratives to the cage, with Medic looking to prove that his powerful striking can overcome Holland’s experience.

#UrosMedic #KevinHolland #UFC334 #Welterweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Uros Medic Kevin Holland
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 55.1% 44.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 57.7% 42.3%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 53.5% 46.5%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 32.8% 67.2%
Ensemble 51.6% 48.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Kevin Holland's reach advantage and superior takedowns absorbed are key drivers, but Uros Medic's win streak and knockdown advantage are also influential. The ensemble prediction favors Uros Medic (52%), a result achieved through calibration and weighting, as individual models were split, with Model ζ strongly favoring Medic and Models λ and ε leaning towards Holland.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Uros Medic, citing his higher win rate and both fighters being past their prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Kevin Holland, highlighting his reach advantage and orthodox stance, despite Uros Medic's Elo rating.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Uros Medic
51.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 1m15s (1m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

35% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 93 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 93 similar fights By submission *Based on 93 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Uros Medic 23.8% 17.7% 10.0% 51.6%
Kevin Holland 22.4% 16.7% 9.4% 48.4%
93 historical bouts 46.2% 34.4% 19.4% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Uros Medic Kevin Holland
UFC Record 8-3 16-12-1
Height 6' 1" 6' 3"
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 71" 81"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 33 33

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

93 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 93 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

46% Reached the judges
54% Ended early
34% KO/TKO 19% Submission 4:24 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Uros Medic Kevin Holland
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa
Heavyweight
Tai Tuivasa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
32.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
Ciryl Gane Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.7
Strike accuracy
65.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 4, 2024
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Middleweight
Caio Borralho Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
72%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.5s
Paul Craig
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
45.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Flyweight
Alden Coria Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
34.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
45.7s
Stewart Nicoll
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
31.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
55.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 7, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Middleweight
Vitor Belfort Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Dan Henderson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 27, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Women's Flyweight
Liang Na
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Ivana Petrovic Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
112.3s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 22, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
34.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Alexander Volkov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 20, 2022
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Light Heavyweight
Harry Hunsucker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Tyson Pedro Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2012
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
Welterweight
Lance Benoist
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
54.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
130.3s
Seth Baczynski Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 16, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Heavyweight
Carlos Felipe
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.3s
Andrei Arlovski Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Featherweight
Makwan Amirkhani Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
89.5s
Chris Fishgold
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Light Heavyweight
Billy Elekana Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
73.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Kevin Christian
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
82.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 15, 2012
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier
Middleweight
Tom Lawlor Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Jason MacDonald
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
12.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 31, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
Bantamweight
Miles Johns Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m51s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61s
Kevin Natividad
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
24.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 14, 2026
UFC Freedom 250
Featherweight
Steve Garcia
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.5
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Diego Lopes Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Uros Medic Kevin Holland UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 14.9 18.4 13.2
Strike accuracy 58.2% 50.3% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.1 0.2 0.4
Takedown accuracy 50% 39.5% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0.2 0.2
Control time 6.4s 34.9s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.60 0.10 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.20 0.03 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 82.4% 57.1% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 60.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 4 1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 17 28 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 68.3% 54.6% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.4% 18.8% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.3% 26.5% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 9.93 14.61 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.53 0.7 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.17 0.34 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.12 0.39 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 1.4 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 68.8% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 85.7% 31.3% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 14.3% 37.5% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 41.7% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 63.8% 74.7% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 12.5% 13.4% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 23.7% 11.9% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 3:50 10:53 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,581.6 1,560.3 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.156 0.249 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline —

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