FightChoice Intelligence Report

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Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney

https://fightchoice.app/events/jim-miller-vs-terrance-mckinney-prediction-2026-11-14

Lightweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expand

As UFC 334 approaches, fans are buzzing about the clash between the veteran Jim Miller and the rising star Terrance McKinney in the lightweight division. At 43 years old, Miller enters the octagon with a wealth of experience, boasting an impressive UFC record of 28-18-1. However, he faces a formidable opponent in McKinney, who at just 32 years old holds a record of 8-6 and showcases a striking accuracy of 55.8%—more than 13% higher than Miller’s 42.1%. The height and reach advantages lie with McKinney, who stands at 5'10" with a 73" reach, compared to Miller’s 5'8" and 71". With McKinney's striking output averaging 17.1 significant strikes per round, the fight could very well turn into a striking showcase, reminiscent of when Michael Chiesa dominated Anton Kuivanen with his own striking prowess back in 2013.

The matchup evokes memories of fighters like Jaqueline Amorim and Sam Hughes, where experience met youthful energy. Miller, known for his grappling, has a sub win rate of 50%, slightly edging out McKinney’s 47.4%. However, McKinney’s finish rate is an astounding 100%, suggesting that he’s not just looking to win but to do so emphatically. As both fighters are in a decline phase of their careers, this bout is not just about numbers; it’s about legacy. Can Miller outlast the explosive McKinney, or will the younger fighter’s dynamism spell an end to the old guard?

#JimMiller #TerranceMcKinney #UFC334 #Lightweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jim Miller Terrance McKinney
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 37.7% 62.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 51.5% 48.5%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 45.1% 54.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 42.0% 58.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 28.9% 71.1%
Ensemble 38.1% 61.9%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Terrance McKinney's advantages in age and past prime status are the strongest drivers across models, with significant strikes landed also playing a key role. The ensemble prediction favors Terrance McKinney (62%), despite a split among individual models, due to calibrated weighting.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Terrance McKinney, citing McKinney's advantages in age, past prime status, and win rate over Jim Miller.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Terrance McKinney, pointing to McKinney's advantages in age, significant strikes landed, and orthodox stance over Jim Miller.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Terrance McKinney
61.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

33% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Jim Miller Terrance McKinney
UFC Record 28-18-1 8-6
Height 5' 8" 5' 10"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 71" 73"
Stance Southpaw Switch
Age 43 32

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

4 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jim Miller Terrance McKinney
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 8, 2023
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Women's Strawweight
Sam Hughes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
44.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
140.7s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
23.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
74s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Featherweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Rodrigo Damm Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
46.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.3s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 23, 2013
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
Lightweight
Michael Chiesa Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.5
Strike accuracy
10%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
63.5s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
32.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 4, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik
Featherweight
Lucas Almeida Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.3s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 10, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen
Featherweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
32.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Ilia Topuria Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
55.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
160.7s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 15, 2021
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Featherweight
Tucker Lutz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
55.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.7s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.3s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 11, 2023
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Welterweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
28.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Flyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
Ramazan Temirov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
39.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
51% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 19, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
Welterweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.4
Strike accuracy
31%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.2s
Kamaru Usman Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.2
Strike accuracy
31.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51.6s
51% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 24, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Flyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.3
Strike accuracy
35.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.3s
Joshua Van Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 4, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik
Women's Flyweight
Karine Silva Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
73.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal
Welterweight
Leon Edwards Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
63.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
69.7s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
87.3s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 25, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Bantamweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.5s
Cory Sandhagen Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
58.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
126s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 13, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira
Featherweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
47%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.5s
Brian Kelleher Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
29.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.5s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
Women's Flyweight
Ariane da Silva Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
49.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
175.7s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.7s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jim Miller Terrance McKinney UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 12.7 17.1 13.2
Strike accuracy 42.1% 55.8% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.4 0.4 0.4
Takedown accuracy 45% 46.7% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.5 0.3 0.2
Control time 54.3s 58.3s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.06 0.19 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.03 0.31 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 60.9% 70.4% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 46 27 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 58.5% 87.2% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.3% 12.8% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.2% 0.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 14.86 10.25 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.5 0.19 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.51 0 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.73 0 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.52 0 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No Yes —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 71.4% 100.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 21.4% 52.6% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 47.4% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 27.8% 87.5% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 72.1% 46.7% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 14.7% 11.7% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.2% 41.6% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:33 2:28 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,580.1 1,525.9 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.263 0.169 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline —

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