FightChoice Intelligence Report

Bilal Hasan
vs
Luis Gurule

Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule

https://fightchoice.app/events/bilal-hasan-vs-luis-gurule-prediction-2026-11-14

Flyweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

In the electrifying Flyweight clash at UFC 334, undefeated Bilal Hasan steps into the octagon with a pristine 10-0 record, looking to maintain his flawless streak against the seasoned Luis Gurule, who comes in at 11-4. At just 25 years old, Hasan represents a rising star, while Gurule, at 32, is in the twilight of his career. This matchup has the makings of a classic showdown, reminiscent of Gregor Gillespie's decisive victory over Vinc Pichel, where the younger contender showcased his striking prowess and relentless pressure to secure a finish.

Hasan brings a striking accuracy of 41.1% and a knockout win rate of 75.0%, showcasing his ability to end fights decisively. With a finish rate of 81.3%, he has a penchant for making quick work of his opponents, while Gurule, despite his experience, has shown vulnerability with a 50% stoppage rate against him. Additionally, Hasan's ability to absorb minimal damage—averaging just 16.5 significant strikes absorbed per fight—compared to Gurule's 26, indicates a potential path to victory through superior striking and defense. With the odds heavily favoring Hasan, this fight promises to be a thrilling encounter as he seeks to assert himself as a top contender in the Flyweight division.

#BilalHasan #LuisGurule #UFC334 #Flyweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Bilal Hasan Luis Gurule
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 90.9% 9.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 71.9% 28.1%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 69.6% 30.4%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 58.0% 42.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 63.9% 36.1%
Ensemble 80.0% 20.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Bilal Hasan's superior recent win rate and win streak, combined with an age advantage, are the strongest drivers for the ensemble's prediction. Model ζ, in particular, shows extreme confidence in Hasan. The ensemble favors Bilal Hasan, with most individual models agreeing, though some factors like reach and height favor Luis Gurule.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Bilal Hasan, citing his advantage in absorbed strikes and being past prime, despite Luis Gurule's reach.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Bilal Hasan, noting his age and height advantage over Luis Gurule, despite Gurule's higher Elo rating.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Bilal Hasan
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

49% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 57 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 57 similar fights By submission *Based on 57 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Bilal Hasan 30.9% 26.7% 22.5% 80.0%
Luis Gurule 7.7% 6.7% 5.6% 20.0%
57 historical bouts 38.6% 33.3% 28.1% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Bilal Hasan Luis Gurule
Career Record 10-0 11-4
Height — 5' 5"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach — 64"
Stance — Orthodox
Age 25 32

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

57 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 57 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

39% Reached the judges
61% Ended early
33% KO/TKO 28% Submission 6:53 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Bilal Hasan Luis Gurule
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
Lightweight
Gregor Gillespie Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m06s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3.5
Takedown accuracy
77.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
235.5s
Vinc Pichel
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
31.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2017
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
Welterweight
Jesse Taylor Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
87.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
164.5s
Dhiego Lima
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 11, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
Lightweight
Mateusz Rebecki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
Diego Ferreira Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m51s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41
Strike accuracy
51%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 11, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
Light Heavyweight
Jimi Manuwa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
114.3s
Jan Blachowicz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
41.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.7s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov
Women's Flyweight
Natalia Silva Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
29.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Viviane Araujo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
120.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 11, 2023
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
Lightweight
Mateusz Rebecki Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
134s
Roosevelt Roberts
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Bantamweight
Brett Johns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
30.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
130s
Aljamain Sterling Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Welterweight
Sergey Khandozhko Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
40.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
Rostem Akman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2019
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Featherweight
Arnold Allen Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
Gilbert Melendez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
20.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 16, 2007
UFC 72: Victory
Lightweight
Tyson Griffin Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
57.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.3s
Clay Guida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
157s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 26, 2006
UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral
Welterweight
Josh Neer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
40.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
Nick Diaz Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
37.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
40.3s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 16, 2023
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
Lightweight
Charlie Campbell Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43
Strike accuracy
59.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Alex Reyes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
36.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2022
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
catch/open/unknown
Khamzat Chimaev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
116s
Kevin Holland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
—
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2020
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
Featherweight
Chase Hooper Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
Peter Barrett
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
55.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.7s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 15, 2012
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier
Lightweight
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
Kamal Shalorus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Bilal Hasan Luis Gurule UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 26.5 23.1 13.2
Strike accuracy 41.1% 41.3% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.5 0.3 0.4
Takedown accuracy 100% 17.6% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0.1 0.2
Control time 31.5s 32.1s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.50 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.08 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 76.5% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 20.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 16 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 16 17 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 52.8% 74.7% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 37.7% 10.1% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.4% 15.2% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 16.5 26 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.33 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 2.38 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.13 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 81.3% 61.5% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 53.8% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 6.3% 7.7% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 50.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 71.7% 89.9% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 15.1% 8.7% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.2% 1.4% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:28 11:03 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1516 1,457.0 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.136 0.108 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline —

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