FightChoice Intelligence Report

Ciryl Gane
vs
Josh Hokit

Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit

https://fightchoice.app/events/ciryl-gane-vs-josh-hokit-prediction-2026-11-14

Heavyweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Ciryl Gane prepares to face off against the undefeated Josh Hokit at UFC 334, the dynamics of this heavyweight clash are electric. Gane, with a seasoned UFC record of 11-2-1, stands tall at 6'4" with an impressive 81" reach, which gives him a significant advantage in both range and experience. In contrast, Hokit, at just 28 years old and a perfect 4-0, brings youthful energy and a striking output of 44.1 strikes per round, far exceeding Gane's 25.2. This fight echoes the historical showdown between Pedro Munhoz and Chris Gutierrez, where a seasoned fighter faced a rising star, showcasing the clash of experience versus raw talent.

Not only does Hokit boast a staggering finish rate of 83.3%, but he also remains unscathed in his career thus far, absorbing no knockdowns in his fights. Gane, while having a solid defensive record, has faced adversity, with a 50% rate of being stopped in his bouts. This matchup presents a compelling narrative: will Gane's experience and reach allow him to neutralize Hokit’s aggressive striking, or will Hokit continue his meteoric rise by overwhelming the veteran with his relentless pace? The stakes are high, and the outcome remains uncertain as both fighters aim to carve their names into UFC history.

#CirylGane #JoshHokit #UFC334 #Heavyweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Ciryl Gane Josh Hokit
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 51.3% 48.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 57.6% 42.4%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 33.9% 66.1%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 42.0% 58.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 60.7% 39.3%
Ensemble 51.0% 49.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Ciryl Gane, despite a split among individual models. Model ζ's strong lean towards Josh Hokit is based on his striking and Gane's age, while Models λ and ε favor Gane due to reach and defensive metrics. The final ensemble result is achieved through calibration and weighting, ultimately favoring Ciryl Gane.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Josh Hokit, citing his higher win rate against Ciryl Gane.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Ciryl Gane, highlighting his superior Elo rating and reach advantage over Josh Hokit.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Ciryl Gane
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
5th Round at 3m45s (23m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

36% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 75 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 75 similar fights By submission *Based on 75 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Ciryl Gane 20.8% 18.1% 11.4% 50.3%
Josh Hokit 20.5% 17.9% 11.3% 49.7%
75 historical bouts 41.3% 36.0% 22.7% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Ciryl Gane Josh Hokit
UFC Record 11-2-1 4-0
Height 6' 4" 6' 1"
Weight 245 lbs. 238 lbs.
Reach 81" 73"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 36 28

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

75 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 75 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

41% Reached the judges
59% Ended early
36% KO/TKO 23% Submission 5:47 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Ciryl Gane Josh Hokit
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Bantamweight
Chris Gutierrez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Pedro Munhoz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
34.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2015
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver
Welterweight
Cathal Pendred Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
89.3s
Sean Spencer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
33.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 7, 2019
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Lightweight
Fares Ziam
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.3
Strike accuracy
32.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49s
Don Madge Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
191.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2006
UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2
Light Heavyweight
Michael Bisping Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
57.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
Eric Schafer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
151s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Middleweight
Nick Klein
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
60.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90.5s
Mansur Abdul-Malik Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.5s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 19, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
Welterweight
Matt Brown Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
55.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
Dhiego Lima
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
42.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 18, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Welterweight
Gilbert Burns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Mike Malott Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 17, 2024
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Lightweight
Alex Reyes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.3s
Tom Nolan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 13, 2009
UFC 99: The Comeback
Lightweight
Dale Hartt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
Dennis Siver Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
70s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 15, 2026
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.5
Strike accuracy
61.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
91s
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
50.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.5s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 5, 2007
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard
Light Heavyweight
Seth Petruzelli
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
26.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.5s
Wilson Gouveia Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
43.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
97s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 27, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping
Featherweight
Yaotzin Meza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40.7s
Arnold Allen Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
30.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 15, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
97.3s
Abdul Razak Alhassan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
50.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 4, 2017
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
Heavyweight
Aleksei Oleinik
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Curtis Blaydes Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
38.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 21, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
Heavyweight
Mohammed Usman Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.7
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Hamdy Abdelwahab
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Ciryl Gane Josh Hokit UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 25.2 44.1 13.2
Strike accuracy 61.7% 63.8% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.2 0.4 0.4
Takedown accuracy 23.5% 50% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.1 0.2
Control time 25s 72.9s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.10 0.43 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.03 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 84.6% 100.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 6 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 13 6 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 45.1% 90.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 26.4% 8.4% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 28.4% 1.6% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 10.34 26.29 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.24 0.29 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.24 0.64 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.28 0.97 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.5 0 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 63.6% 83.3% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 45.5% 83.3% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 18.2% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 88.5% 67.6% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.1% 16.8% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.4% 15.5% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:39 7:31 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,652.5 1,570.3 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.239 0.182 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Ciryl Gane 51.0% 1.38 72.5% -30.6%
Josh Hokit 49.0% 3.15 31.7% +56.6%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Ciryl Gane Josh Hokit
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -333 1.30 +188 2.88
DraftKings -263 1.38 +215 3.15
FanDuel -263 1.38 +200 3.00
BetOnline -263 1.38 +216 3.16

Odds captured Oct 24, 2026, 12:02 PM

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