FightChoice Intelligence Report

Nazim Sadykhov
vs
Jefferson Nascimento

Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento

https://fightchoice.app/events/nazim-sadykhov-vs-jefferson-nascimento-prediction-2026-11-14

Lightweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

At UFC 334, the lightweight clash between Nazim Sadykhov and Jefferson Nascimento presents a fascinating contrast of styles and trajectories. Sadykhov, with an 11-3 record, boasts an impressive striking output of 19.5 significant strikes landed per round, far exceeding Nascimento’s 11.7. This striking prowess is complemented by Sadykhov’s high finish rate of 80%, which includes a remarkable 66.7% KO win rate. On the other hand, Nascimento, sitting at a solid 13-1, enters this fight with a recent win rate of 80%, reflecting his peak performance stage, but will need to navigate Sadykhov’s aggressive striking and grappling control that averages 32.1 seconds per round.

History has seen similar matchups where aggressive strikers took on tactical grapplers, akin to the fight between Taylor Lapilus and Yuta Sasaki back in 2015, where Lapilus showcased superior striking and control, leading to a decisive finish. With Nascimento’s orthodox stance facing off against Sadykhov’s southpaw approach, fans can expect a dynamic striking battle, reminiscent of the explosive clash between Eddie Alvarez and Conor McGregor at UFC 205. This matchup not only highlights the styles but also the stakes—Sadykhov is coming off two losses, while Nascimento seeks to extend his winning streak. As they step into the octagon, the fight promises to deliver fireworks, with Sadykhov looking to reclaim his momentum against a rising star.

#NazimSadykhov #JeffersonNascimento #UFC334 #Lightweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Nazim Sadykhov Jefferson Nascimento
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 73.7% 26.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 67.7% 32.3%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 55.3% 44.7%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 58.0% 42.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 70.5% 29.5%
Ensemble 72.3% 27.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble favors Nazim Sadykhov, driven by his age advantage and reach over Jefferson Nascimento, despite Model ζ strongly favoring Nascimento due to cardio defense. Calibration and weighting led to the ensemble's final prediction.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Nazim Sadykhov, citing his age advantage over Jefferson Nascimento and Nascimento's reach.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Nazim Sadykhov, highlighting his age, reach, and southpaw stance against Jefferson Nascimento.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Nazim Sadykhov
72.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

50% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 32 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 32 similar fights By submission *Based on 32 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Nazim Sadykhov 29.4% 27.1% 15.8% 72.3%
Jefferson Nascimento 11.3% 10.4% 6.1% 27.7%
32 historical bouts 40.6% 37.5% 21.9% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Nazim Sadykhov Jefferson Nascimento
Career Record 11-3 13-1
Height 5' 10" —
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 69" —
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 32 —

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

32 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 32 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

41% Reached the judges
59% Ended early
38% KO/TKO 22% Submission 6:07 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Nazim Sadykhov Jefferson Nascimento
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 20, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne
Bantamweight
Yuta Sasaki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.5s
Taylor Lapilus Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
51.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
70s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 12, 2016
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
Lightweight
Conor McGregor Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m04s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Eddie Alvarez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
22%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.5s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 2, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Flyweight
Felipe Bunes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Rafael Estevam Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
55.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
214s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 16, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux
Flyweight
Jussier Formiga Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
39.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
Zach Makovsky
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
82.3s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Bantamweight
Anthony Birchak Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
36.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
Dileno Lopes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
28.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
103.3s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Bantamweight
AJ Cunningham
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
SuYoung You Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
158s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 16, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Heavyweight
Justin Tafa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.7
Strike accuracy
58.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.7s
Carlos Felipe Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
54.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chidi Njokuani Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2006
UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2
Heavyweight
Gabriel Gonzaga Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
3
Control time (Per Rnd)
177s
Carmelo Marrero
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 22, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
Welterweight
Matt Dwyer Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
35.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
William Macario
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 25, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
Lightweight
Joe Solecki Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
265.5s
Carl Deaton
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0.5
Strike accuracy
8.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 6, 2021
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Middleweight
Phil Hawes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
48
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chris Curtis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 30, 2021
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
Flyweight
Tagir Ulanbekov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
241.3s
Allan Nascimento
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
67.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 29, 2010
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
Heavyweight
Todd Duffee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
28%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Mike Russow Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m35s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.7
Strike accuracy
31.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller
Flyweight
John Lineker Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m51s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44.3
Strike accuracy
40.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
Alptekin Ozkilic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Nazim Sadykhov Jefferson Nascimento UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 19.5 11.7 13.2
Strike accuracy 46.9% 48.6% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.4 0 0.4
Takedown accuracy 45.5% 0% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0 0.2
Control time 32.1s 11s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.14 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.29 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 90.9% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 18 11 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 62.6% 31.4% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 25.3% 54.3% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 12.1% 14.3% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.45 12.33 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.45 0.67 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.08 — 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.03 — 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 — 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 60.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 40.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 13.3% 20.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 73.6% 94.3% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 24.2% 5.7% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 2.2% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:05 14:28 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,528.0 1484 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.167 0.122 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak —

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