FightChoice Intelligence Report

Macy Chiasson
vs
Bia Mesquita

Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita

https://fightchoice.app/events/macy-chiasson-vs-bia-mesquita-prediction-2026-11-14

Women's Bantamweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

In the octagon at UFC 334, Macy Chiasson takes on Bia Mesquita in a compelling clash of styles and trajectories within the women’s bantamweight division. Chiasson, standing tall at 5'11" with a 72" reach, boasts a UFC record of 8-6, showcasing a wealth of experience in her 14-fight career. However, she enters the matchup in a downward spiral, currently on a three-fight losing streak. On the other hand, Mesquita is riding high with a perfect 3-0 record in the UFC, demonstrating a strong finishing ability with an impressive 100% finish rate, suggesting she knows how to capitalize on her opportunities and end the fight decisively.

The numbers highlight a clear dynamic between the two fighters. While Chiasson averages slightly more strikes per round (14.4) compared to Mesquita (14.3), it’s Mesquita’s accuracy and grappling that stand out—she connects with 57% of her strikes and boasts a takedown accuracy of 75%. This has echoes of the matchup between Neil Magny and Mike Malott at UFC 297, where experience faced off against a rising star, resulting in a finish for the veteran. With both fighters at 35 years old, the stakes are high; Chiasson seeks to reclaim her footing while Mesquita looks to solidify her status as a contender. This fight promises to be a thrilling encounter as both seek to carve their legacy in the octagon.

#MacyChiasson #BiaMesquita #UFC334 #WomensBantamweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Macy Chiasson Bia Mesquita
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 51.1% 48.9%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 29.3% 70.7%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 43.3% 56.7%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 53.8% 46.2%
Ensemble 45.1% 54.9%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Bia Mesquita's win streak and higher recent win rate are strong drivers for the ensemble prediction. The ensemble favors Bia Mesquita, despite Macy Chiasson having a slight edge in reach and height according to some models.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Bia Mesquita, citing her higher win rate and younger age over Macy Chiasson, despite Chiasson's reach advantage.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Macy Chiasson, highlighting her reach and height advantages over Bia Mesquita, despite Mesquita's edge in ground strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Bia Mesquita
54.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

54% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 39 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 39 similar fights By submission *Based on 39 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Macy Chiasson 22.0% 16.2% 6.9% 45.1%
Bia Mesquita 26.8% 19.7% 8.5% 54.9%
39 historical bouts 48.7% 35.9% 15.4% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Macy Chiasson Bia Mesquita
UFC Record 8-6 3-0
Height 5' 11" —
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 72" —
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 35 35

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

39 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 39 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

49% Reached the judges
51% Ended early
36% KO/TKO 15% Submission 4:49 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Macy Chiasson Bia Mesquita
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2024
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Welterweight
Neil Magny Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
55.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35.7s
Mike Malott
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
67.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
120.7s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 20, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba
Lightweight
Kaynan Kruschewsky
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.7s
Kurt Holobaugh Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
107s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
Amanda Ribas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
30.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.5s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 19, 2023
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Women's Flyweight
Maryna Moroz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
29.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
101s
Karine Silva Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
56.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 13, 2019
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd
Women's Bantamweight
Germaine de Randamie Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
80%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Aspen Ladd
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 28, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Bantamweight
Angel Pacheco
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
25.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.3s
Santiago Luna Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43.7
Strike accuracy
57.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
67.7s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 8, 2016
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Flyweight
John Moraga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
27.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Matheus Nicolau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
48.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.3s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Heavyweight
Alexander Volkov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
56.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Tom Aspinall Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
67.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
114s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 18, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Heavyweight
Josh Parisian
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
32.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
Jamal Pogues Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
55%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
116.3s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov
Lightweight
Damir Hadzovic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Terrance McKinney Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
54
Strike accuracy
78.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
60s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Women's Flyweight
Taila Santos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
73%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
255.7s
Gillian Robertson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
64.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 6, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
Heavyweight
Augusto Sakai
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.5s
Serghei Spivac Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
67.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
198.5s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 10, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez
Bantamweight
Joby Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Mark De La Rosa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
39.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.7s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2012
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Light Heavyweight
Chad Griggs
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Cyrille Diabate Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
85.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
115s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 27, 2019
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
Women's Flyweight
Alexis Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
49.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75.7s
Viviane Araujo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
45.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Macy Chiasson Bia Mesquita UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 14.4 14.3 13.2
Strike accuracy 46.1% 57% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.6 0.8 0.4
Takedown accuracy 35.8% 75% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.8 0.2
Control time 92s 102.8s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.06 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.03 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 57.1% 100.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -3 3 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 14 3 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 54.7% 93.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 35.3% 3.5% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.0% 3.5% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 12.38 4 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.35 0.25 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.25 0 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.24 0 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.4 0 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 62.5% 100.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 37.5% 0.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 25.0% 100.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 48.4% 19.3% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 30.6% 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 21.0% 80.7% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:54 4:12 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,519.6 1,545.8 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.074 0.043 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Early —

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