FightChoice Intelligence Report

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Adrian Yanez vs Juan Diaz

https://fightchoice.app/events/adrian-yanez-vs-juan-diaz-prediction-2026-11-14

Bantamweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expand

As Adrian Yanez steps into the octagon against Juan Diaz at UFC 334, fans are in for an electrifying clash of experience versus potential. Yanez, with a robust UFC record of 7-3-1, boasts a striking prowess that has earned him an impressive average of 24 significant strikes per round and an astonishing finish rate of 85.7%, primarily through knockouts. In contrast, the debuting Diaz, though untested at this level with a 1-0 record, comes in with a strong grappling game, averaging 2.5 takedowns per round with a striking accuracy of 52%. This matchup mirrors previous bouts like Anderson Silva vs. Nate Marquardt, where the seasoned fighter's experience and striking ability triumphed over a promising but less experienced opponent.

The dynamics are fascinating: Yanez, at 32, is in a career decline, while 28-year-old Diaz is peaking, which could play a crucial role in how the fight unfolds. With Yanez's reach at 70 inches and a striking style that favors head strikes (71.6% of his output), he will look to keep the fight standing and capitalize on his knockout power. Diaz will need to leverage his grappling skills effectively to avoid the striking onslaught and test Yanez's defense, especially given that Yanez has absorbed more significant strikes on average. With the odds heavily favoring Yanez, this fight could be a telling moment for both fighters—will experience outshine youth, or will Diaz's potential shine through in his first big test?

#AdrianYanez #JuanDiaz #UFC334 #Bantamweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Adrian Yanez Juan Diaz
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 46.2% 53.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 47.1% 52.9%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 33.5% 66.5%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 42.0% 58.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 47.3% 52.7%
Ensemble 41.6% 58.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Juan Diaz is favored by the ensemble prediction. Juan Diaz's advantages in sig strikes absorbed and height are key drivers, as seen across multiple models. Model ζ also notes Juan Diaz's takedowns landed, while Model λ points to his head strike share.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Juan Diaz, citing his edge in sig strikes absorbed and takedowns landed.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Juan Diaz, pointing to his superior sig strikes absorbed and height advantage.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Juan Diaz
58.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

44% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Adrian Yanez Juan Diaz
UFC Record 7-3-1 1-0
Height 5' 7" —
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 70" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 32 28

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Adrian Yanez Juan Diaz
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 23, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas
Heavyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Karl Williams Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
65.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
58.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
210.3s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2007
UFC 73: Stacked
Middleweight
Anderson Silva Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
27.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144s
50% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 31, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi
Middleweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57.5s
Magnus Cedenblad Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
194s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 20, 2007
UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Lightweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
123.3s
Alvin Robinson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
56.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
161.7s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 6, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson
Heavyweight
Roy Nelson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 31, 2010
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
Lightweight
Andre Winner Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.7s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 6, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi
Bantamweight
Brad Pickett Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
33.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
91s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
45.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49.7s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 13, 2012
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
Lightweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
83s
Gleison Tibau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
132.7s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 25, 2014
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
Featherweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
31.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.7s
Darren Elkins Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
30.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
7.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
161s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2015
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Women's Strawweight
Valerie Letourneau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
30.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.7s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
43%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
126.3s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 10, 2010
UFC 112: Invincible
Light Heavyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
Phil Davis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
77.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
220s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
Lightweight
Chris Duncan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
41.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2015
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
40.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
33%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 28, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
Women's Bantamweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
25.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
Norma Dumont Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
58.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
80.3s
44% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 17, 2011
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Featherweight
Erik Koch Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
172.7s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Adrian Yanez Juan Diaz UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 24 6.5 13.2
Strike accuracy 41.8% 52% 43.9%
Takedowns 0 2.5 0.4
Takedown accuracy 0% 62.5% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0.5 0.2
Control time 5.9s 114s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.38 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.14 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 70.0% 80.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 3 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 10 5 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 71.6% 23.1% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 13.4% 23.1% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 15.0% 53.8% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 22.28 7.5 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.11 0 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.26 — 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.26 — 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 — 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 85.7% 50.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 85.7% 0.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 50.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 66.7% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 90.5% 76.9% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 2.1% 15.4% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.4% 7.7% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:01 9:08 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,556.5 1,516.6 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.084 0.039 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak —

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