FightChoice Intelligence Report

Stephen Thompson
vs
Charles Radtke

Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke

https://fightchoice.app/events/stephen-thompson-vs-charles-radtke-prediction-2026-11-14

Welterweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Stephen Thompson steps into the octagon at UFC 334 to face Charles Radtke, fans can expect a fascinating clash of styles between experience and rising talent. At 43, Thompson, with a UFC record of 12-9-1, represents the veteran who has seen it all. His height advantage at 6'0" and reach of 75 inches give him a striking edge; he averages a whopping 19.6 significant strikes per round, compared to Radtke's 10.8. However, Radtke, at 36, enters the cage with a potent skill set of his own, boasting a higher striking accuracy of 53.9% and a superior takedown rate, landing 0.6 per round.

With Radtke riding a two-fight win streak and a finish rate of 75%, he’s primed to capitalize on any openings Thompson may give him. Historical matchups echo this narrative; think back to Lauren Murphy vs. Eduarda Moura, where experience met youthful vigor in a thrilling bout that showcased the dynamics of skill versus stamina. In this welterweight showdown, Thompson must leverage his veteran savvy to outmaneuver Radtke, whose burgeoning confidence could turn the tide. With this fight being marked by a notable odds gap, the stakes are high, and every strike counts.

#StephenThompson #CharlesRadtke #UFC334 #Welterweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Stephen Thompson Charles Radtke
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 54.3% 45.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 3.4% 96.6%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 25.1% 74.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 0.0% 100.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 44.5% 55.5%
Ensemble 20.0% 80.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Charles Radtke, driven by Stephen Thompson's age and past prime status, and their respective win rates. While most individual models align with this, Model ε shows a slight split, favoring Charles Radtke primarily due to age factors but noting Stephen Thompson's reach advantage.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Charles Radtke, citing Stephen Thompson's age, their win rates, their age difference, Stephen Thompson being past his prime, and Charles Radtke's win rate.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Charles Radtke, pointing to Stephen Thompson's age, their age difference, Stephen Thompson being past his prime, and Charles Radtke's age.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Charles Radtke
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

42% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 176 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 176 similar fights By submission *Based on 176 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Stephen Thompson 10.2% 6.6% 3.2% 20.0%
Charles Radtke 40.9% 26.4% 12.7% 80.0%
176 historical bouts 51.1% 33.0% 15.9% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Stephen Thompson Charles Radtke
UFC Record 12-9-1 5-2
Height 6' 0" 5' 9"
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 75" 72"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 43 36

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

176 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 176 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
33% KO/TKO 16% Submission 4:19 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Stephen Thompson Charles Radtke
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 12, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Women's Flyweight
Lauren Murphy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
26.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Eduarda Moura Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
27.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 20, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Women's Bantamweight
Melissa Mullins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
87s
Bia Mesquita Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 9, 2024
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Flyweight
CJ Vergara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
54.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
Asu Almabayev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
64.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
190.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
167.7s
Serghei Spivac
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 3, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
23.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Gillian Robertson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
160.5s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
Lightweight
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
66.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
112s
Matt Wiman Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
67.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
101.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 29, 2024
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
Gillian Robertson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
73.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
251.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz
Bantamweight
John Dodson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
54.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
39.3s
Nathaniel Wood
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 26, 2024
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Featherweight
Victor Hugo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
36%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Farid Basharat Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 12, 2026
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
Lightweight
Drakkar Klose
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Tommy Gantt Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
68.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
198.3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 26, 2024
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Featherweight
Max Holloway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
38.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ilia Topuria Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
52.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 3, 2011
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
Middleweight
Mark Munoz Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
CB Dollaway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 24, 2021
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Jimmy Crute
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
51.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
Amanda Ribas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
30.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 17, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song
Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
47.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.3s
Anthony Hernandez Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m53s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
65%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
175s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Stephen Thompson Charles Radtke UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 19.6 10.8 13.2
Strike accuracy 46% 53.9% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.1 0.6 0.4
Takedown accuracy 35.7% 44.4% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0.1 0.2
Control time 17.5s 132.9s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.15 0.14 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.09 0.14 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 57.1% 76.2% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 20.0% 60.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -3 2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 21 21 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 66.5% 84.8% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.5% 5.3% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.0% 9.9% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 14.72 10.57 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.46 0 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.65 0.32 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.49 0.53 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.25 0.5 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 75.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 50.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 25.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 80.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.3% 66.9% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.0% 7.9% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.7% 25.2% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:02 8:37 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,544.6 1,540.9 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.204 0.127 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak —

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