FightChoice Intelligence Report

Caio Borralho
vs
Yousri Belgaroui

Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui

https://fightchoice.app/events/caio-borralho-vs-yousri-belgaroui-prediction-2026-11-14

Middleweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Caio Borralho steps into the octagon against Yousri Belgaroui at UFC 334, fans can expect a classic clash of styles that has the potential to ignite the middleweight division. Borralho, with an impressive career record of 18-2, brings a calculated approach, showcasing his grappling strength with an average of 77.2 seconds of control time per round. He’s a southpaw who thrives on precision, landing 15.8 significant strikes per round at an accuracy of 55.1%. Yet, he faces a formidable opponent in Belgaroui, whose height advantage (6' 5") and reach (79 inches) will allow him to dictate distance and leverage his striking arsenal. In fact, Belgaroui is averaging a staggering 34.6 strikes per round with an elite accuracy of 64.5%.

This matchup resonates with echoes of past battles, particularly the intense showdown between Matt Brown and Diego Sanchez back in 2017, where height and reach played pivotal roles. Just like Brown’s triumph, this fight could showcase Belgaroui’s striking prowess against Borralho's grappling finesse. With Borralho's 50% finish rate and Belgaroui's perfect 100% knockout win rate, the stakes are high, and the fans will undoubtedly be on the edge of their seats. Historically, fights with a significant odds gap often lead to thrilling upsets or decisive victories, and this bout has the makings of either.

#CaioBorralho #YousriBelgaroui #UFC334 #Middleweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Caio Borralho Yousri Belgaroui
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 48.0% 52.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 48.6% 51.4%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 56.7% 43.3%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Ensemble 51.0% 49.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Caio Borralho. Key factors influencing the models include Yousri Belgaroui's age and Caio Borralho's advantage in knockdowns absorbed, alongside striking metrics and win streaks. Despite a split among individual models, the calibrated ensemble leans towards Caio Borralho.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Caio Borralho, citing Yousri Belgaroui's age and Caio Borralho's advantage in knockdowns absorbed.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Yousri Belgaroui, noting Yousri Belgaroui's superior sig strikes landed and Caio Borralho's orthodox stance.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Caio Borralho
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

52% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 153 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 153 similar fights By submission *Based on 153 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Caio Borralho 23.1% 17.5% 9.9% 50.4%
Yousri Belgaroui 22.7% 17.2% 9.7% 49.6%
153 historical bouts 45.8% 34.6% 19.6% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Caio Borralho Yousri Belgaroui
Career Record 18-2 11-3
Height 6' 1" 6' 5"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 75" 79"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 33 34

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

153 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 153 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

46% Reached the judges
54% Ended early
35% KO/TKO 20% Submission 4:37 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Caio Borralho Yousri Belgaroui
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 11, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Welterweight
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
89s
Matt Brown Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 3, 2017
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Middleweight
Nate Marquardt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
50.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Vitor Belfort Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 28, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Lightweight
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
59.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.3s
Alexander Hernandez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
143.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 5, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
Flyweight
Tagir Ulanbekov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
Nate Maness
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 28, 2015
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
10%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Tony Ferguson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
28.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
46s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 30, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.3
Strike accuracy
76.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
54.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
184.3s
Kevin Holland Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
62.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
83.3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 28, 2012
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Lightweight
Evan Dunham Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
70.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
146.5s
Nik Lentz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 13, 2010
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
Middleweight
Yushin Okami Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
30.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
83s
Nate Marquardt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
34.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
57.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 14, 2016
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Welterweight
Demian Maia Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
85%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
241s
Matt Brown
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.3
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 15, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
Middleweight
Kevin Casey Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
79.3s
Ildemar Alcantara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
30.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 14, 2012
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
Middleweight
Vitor Belfort Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
72s
Anthony Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
131s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 21, 2009
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2
Welterweight
Marcus Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66s
Ben Saunders Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
56.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2015
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Welterweight
Johny Hendricks Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
90%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
222.7s
Matt Brown
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
46.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2020
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Featherweight
Makwan Amirkhani Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
Danny Henry
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Middleweight
Ryan Loder
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ismail Naurdiev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Caio Borralho Yousri Belgaroui UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 15.8 34.6 13.2
Strike accuracy 55.1% 64.5% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.3 0.1 0.4
Takedown accuracy 45.5% 100% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0 0.2
Control time 77.2s 14.1s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.10 0.43 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 90.0% 83.3% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 4 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 20 6 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 64.9% 59.1% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.3% 23.6% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.8% 17.4% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 12.62 8 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.17 1 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.79 0.52 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.65 0.09 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1 0.000 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 100.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 27.8% 100.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 22.2% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 82.4% 88.4% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.7% 9.1% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.9% 2.5% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:26 9:40 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,605.1 1,548.5 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.302 0.051 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —

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