FightChoice Intelligence Report
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki
https://fightchoice.app/events/tommy-mcmillen-vs-marwan-rahiki-prediction-2026-09-12
Featherweight
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Sep 12, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:03 UTC
Model Breakdown
Tommy McMillen
Marwan Rahiki
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
57.0%
43.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
59.9%
40.1%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
75.8%
24.2%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
82.5%
17.5%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
93.7%
6.3%
Ensemble
80.0%
20.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble prediction favors Tommy McMillen, driven by his significant strikes landed and reach advantage over Marwan Rahiki, with all individual models agreeing on this outcome.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Tommy McMillen, citing his reach advantage over Marwan Rahiki and that Tommy McMillen is past his prime.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Tommy McMillen, pointing to his reach and significant strikes landed advantages over Marwan Rahiki, as well as Marwan Rahiki being orthodox.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Tommy McMillen
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
65%
52%
41%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
41%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 99 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 99 similar fights | By submission *Based on 99 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy McMillen | 42.8% | 18.6% | 18.6% | 80.0% |
| Marwan Rahiki | 10.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 20.0% |
| 99 historical bouts | 53.5% | 23.2% | 23.2% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Tommy McMillen | Marwan Rahiki |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 12-0 | 9-1 |
| Height | 6' 0" | — |
| Weight | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach | 74" | — |
| Stance | Orthodox | — |
| Age | 28 | — |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
99 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 99 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
54%
Reached the judges
46%
Ended early
23%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
4:55
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
26
Rnd 2
13
Rnd 3
6
Rnd 4
0
Rnd 5
1
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Tommy McMillen | Marwan Rahiki |
|---|---|---|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
|
Fight Performance
|
Rousimar Palhares
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
|
Fight Performance
|
Dong Hyun Kim
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
|
Jonathan Martinez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
|
Fight Performance
|
Alex Caceres
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
|
Fight Performance
|
Alex Caceres
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
|
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
|
Fight Performance
|
Mateusz Gamrot
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar
|
Mark Bocek
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
|
Fight Performance
|
Rinya Nakamura
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho
|
Fight Performance
|
Gerald Meerschaert
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
|
Phil Hawes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
|
Brendan Allen
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
|
Fight Performance
|
Miranda Maverick
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
|
Fight Performance
|
Ricardo Lamas
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
|
Fight Performance
|
Diego Sanchez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Tommy McMillen | Marwan Rahiki |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 59.3 | 31.8 |
| Strike accuracy | 46.9% | 50% |
| Takedowns | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Takedown accuracy | 100% | 50% |
| Sub attempts | 0.4 | 0 |
| Control time | 50.9s | 17.7s |
| Knockdowns | 0.57 | 0.33 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 6 | -1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 6 | 4 |
| head strike share | 70.4% | 62.8% |
| body strike share | 23.1% | 23.0% |
| leg strike share | 6.5% | 14.1% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 22.14 | 27.17 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.14 | 0.83 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.58 | 0.11 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 2 | 5.000 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | No |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 90.1% | 92.1% |
| clinch strike share | 7.0% | 6.3% |
| ground strike share | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 10:49 | 9:16 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,547.2 | 1,514.6 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.118 | 0.020 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy McMillen | 80.0% | 1.68 | 59.5% | +34.4% |
| Marwan Rahiki | 20.0% | 2.24 | 44.6% | -55.2% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
31%
of bankroll
on Tommy McMillen at 1.61 (BetOnline)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Tommy McMillen | Marwan Rahiki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -179 | 1.56 | +112 | 2.12 |
| DraftKings | -147 | 1.68 | +124 | 2.24 |
| FanDuel | -167 | 1.60 | +140 | 2.40 |
| BetMGM | -164 | 1.61 | +135 | 2.35 |
| Bovada | -161 | 1.62 | +135 | 2.35 |
| BetOnline | -161 | 1.62 | +138 | 2.38 |
Odds captured Sep 12, 2026, 6:03 PM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Tommy McMillen
Marwan Rahiki
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