FightChoice Intelligence Report

Yousri Belgaroui
vs
Djorden Santos

Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos

https://fightchoice.app/events/yousri-belgaroui-vs-djorden-santos-prediction-2026-09-12

Middleweight

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Sep 12, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Yousri Belgaroui Djorden Santos
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 59.5% 40.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 66.6% 33.4%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 61.0% 39.0%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 65.1% 34.9%
Ensemble 63.7% 36.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Yousri Belgaroui, driven by a significant edge in sig strikes absorbed across multiple models and Yousri Belgaroui's superior win streak. Despite Djorden Santos being favored by two individual models due to age and striking accuracy factors, calibration and weighting led to the final combined prediction favoring Yousri Belgaroui.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Djorden Santos, citing Djorden Santos's age advantage and Yousri Belgaroui's higher win rate.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Yousri Belgaroui, highlighting Yousri Belgaroui's edge in sig strikes absorbed and Djorden Santos's higher ground strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Yousri Belgaroui
63.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

56% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Yousri Belgaroui Djorden Santos
Career Record 11-3 11-4
Height 6' 5" 6' 0"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 79" 75"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 34 29

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

10 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Yousri Belgaroui Djorden Santos
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 11, 2023
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
Lightweight
Benoit Saint Denis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
Matt Frevola
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2
Welterweight
Brian Melancon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
60.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 25, 2014
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
Lightweight
Diego Ferreira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
24.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.3s
Beneil Dariush Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
157.7s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 13, 2010
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
Light Heavyweight
Karlos Vemola Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
200s
Seth Petruzelli
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 24, 2011
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Aaron Riley
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
22.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 5, 2016
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Women's Bantamweight
Amanda Nunes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.7s
Valentina Shevchenko
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
41.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.3s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 26, 2013
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Welterweight
David Mitchell Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
37.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
80.3s
Simeon Thoresen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
42.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
72.3s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 2, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Featherweight
Kevin Vallejos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
39.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s
Danny Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 17, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Welterweight
Augusto Montano
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Belal Muhammad Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
69.3s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 20, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Welterweight
Tim Means Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
63.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45.7s
Marcio Alexandre Junior
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 17, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie
Lightweight
Fares Ziam Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
Jamie Mullarkey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
27.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
138.7s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 21, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie
Bantamweight
Ryan Benoit
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
53.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alatengheili Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
35.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66.3s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 2, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
Lightweight
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
55.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54.7s
Loik Radzhabov Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
43.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 28, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Welterweight
Darren Till Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
44.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59s
Jessin Ayari
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.3s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 16, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Featherweight
Austin Lingo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.7
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76.7s
Jacob Kilburn
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
31.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
5.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
23s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Yousri Belgaroui Djorden Santos UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 34.6 32.4 13.2
Strike accuracy 64.5% 39.5% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.1 0.1 0.4
Takedown accuracy 100% 20% 32.9%
Sub attempts 0 0 0.2
Control time 14.1s 16.2s 49.1s
Knockdowns 0.43 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.10 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 42.9% 45.6%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 40.0% 37.5%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 4 -2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 7 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 59.1% 83.6% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.6% 7.4% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.4% 9.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 8 38.1 15.22
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1 0.1 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.52 1.16 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.09 0.92 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 5.000 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 33.3% 46.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 0.0% 27.7%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 33.3% 18.6%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 50.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 88.4% 96.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.1% 2.8% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 2.5% 1.2% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:40 12:09 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,548.5 1,472.4 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.059 0.047 0.078
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Yousri Belgaroui 63.7% 1.11 90.1% -29.3%
Djorden Santos 36.3% 7.00 14.3% +153.8%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Yousri Belgaroui Djorden Santos
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -1111 1.09 +475 5.75
DraftKings -909 1.11 +600 7.00
FanDuel -909 1.11 +610 7.10
BetMGM -909 1.11 +600 7.00
Bovada -909 1.11 +600 7.00
BetOnline -833 1.12 +582 6.82

Odds captured Sep 12, 2026, 6:03 PM

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