FightChoice Intelligence Report

David Martinez
vs
Dan Ige

David Martinez vs Dan Ige

https://fightchoice.app/events/david-martinez-vs-dan-ige-prediction-2026-09-12

Bantamweight

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Sep 12, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 22, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
David Martinez Dan Ige
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 56.8% 43.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 68.1% 31.9%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 67.5% 32.5%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 82.5% 17.5%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 59.6% 40.4%
Ensemble 74.4% 25.6%
Predicted Winner
David Martinez
74.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

70% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
David Martinez 32.6% 25.7% 16.1% 74.4%
Dan Ige 11.2% 8.8% 5.6% 25.6%
281 historical bouts 43.8% 34.5% 21.7% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

44% Reached the judges
56% Ended early
35% KO/TKO 22% Submission 6:00 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight David Martinez Dan Ige
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2020
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Light Heavyweight
Jiri Prochazka Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Volkan Oezdemir
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.5
Strike accuracy
44.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.5s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 2, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
Light Heavyweight
Bogdan Guskov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
32%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Volkan Oezdemir Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
56.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
83s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 12, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Light Heavyweight
Junior Tafa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
63.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.5s
Tuco Tokkos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.5
Takedown accuracy
55.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
235.5s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 22, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker
Women's Strawweight
Yan Xiaonan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
102s
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Featherweight
Muhammad Naimov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Erik Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 6, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
Light Heavyweight
Oumar Sy Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
39.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
208s
Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 19, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Bantamweight
Kyler Phillips
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
30.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
Rob Font Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
44.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Bantamweight
Charalampos Grigoriou
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
32.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
108s
Chad Anheliger Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 31, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado
Featherweight
Robert Peralta Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
40.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
Rony Jason
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 8, 2016
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
Middleweight
Michael Bisping Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.8
Strike accuracy
35.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.2s
Dan Henderson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.2
Strike accuracy
36.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.8s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 28, 2012
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Featherweight
Cub Swanson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.5
Strike accuracy
65.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34s
George Roop
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.5
Strike accuracy
35.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2019
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Women's Strawweight
Yan Xiaonan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37s
Angela Hill
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Women's Strawweight
Yazmin Jauregui Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m06s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.5
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85s
Istela Nunes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 17, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Bantamweight
Cristian Quinonez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kyung Ho Kang Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
59.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 2, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Middleweight
Cam Rowston Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
52.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
203.3s
Robert Bryczek
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat David Martinez Dan Ige
UFC Record 3-0 11-10
Height 5' 5" 5' 7"
Weight 135 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 67" 71"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 35

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat David Martinez Dan Ige
Per Round Average
Strikes 22.9 16.7
Strike accuracy 45.6% 45.2%
Takedowns 0.3 0.2
Takedown accuracy 28.6% 22%
Sub attempts 0 0.0
Control time 25.4s 32.8s
Knockdowns 0.14 0.13
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.05
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 55.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 9 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 9 20
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 63.8% 65.8%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.9% 22.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.4% 12.2%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 14 16.98
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.51
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.9 0.7
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 2.04 0.74
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 0.22
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 55.6% 54.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 55.6% 45.5%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 9.1%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 11.1%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.4% 78.1%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.8% 7.9%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.9% 14.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:33 12:17
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,551.5 1,536.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.104 0.148
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

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