FightChoice Intelligence Report

Rafa Garcia
vs
Rongzhu

Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu

https://fightchoice.app/events/rafa-garcia-vs-rongzhu-prediction-2026-09-12

Lightweight

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Sep 12, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 22, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Rafa Garcia Rongzhu
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 47.9% 52.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 65.0% 35.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 58.3% 41.7%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 52.9% 47.1%
Ensemble 57.2% 42.8%
Predicted Winner
Rafa Garcia
57.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

65% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Rafa Garcia 29.7% 19.8% 7.7% 57.2%
Rongzhu 22.2% 14.8% 5.8% 42.8%
281 historical bouts 52.0% 34.5% 13.5% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
35% KO/TKO 14% Submission 4:50 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Rafa Garcia Rongzhu
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
Women's Flyweight
Alexa Grasso Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
48.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.3s
Ji Yeon Kim
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.3s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 23, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards
Women's Strawweight
Yan Xiaonan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Viviane Pereira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
20.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2015
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale
Flyweight
Geane Herrera Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
33.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Joby Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.5
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 11, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
Women's Flyweight
JJ Aldrich
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
103s
Veronica Hardy Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 23, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira
Welterweight
Joshua Burkman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
Patrick Cote Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
64.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
53s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Featherweight
Hakeem Dawodu Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
47
Strike accuracy
65.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75.3s
Michael Trizano
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 2, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve
Welterweight
Leon Edwards Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
162.3s
Bryan Barberena
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
50.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
Women's Bantamweight
Ketlen Vieira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
216.3s
Pannie Kianzad
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2016
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Heavyweight
Fabricio Werdum Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
59.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
Travis Browne
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
25.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 31, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chris Gruetzemacher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
29.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 14, 2009
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera
Welterweight
Mike Swick
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
53s
Dan Hardy Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
49.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
119.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2018
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Women's Flyweight
Katlyn Cerminara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
32.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.7s
Jessica Eye Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
42.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 10, 2021
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Lightweight
Dustin Poirier Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
198s
Conor McGregor
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
71.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 6, 2025
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Featherweight
Muhammad Naimov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.7s
Mairon Santos Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 15, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
Bantamweight
Manvel Gamburyan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
44.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
38.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
96s
Scott Jorgensen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Rafa Garcia Rongzhu
Career Record 19-4 24-6
Height 5' 7" 5' 9"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 70" 71"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 32 26

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Rafa Garcia Rongzhu
Per Round Average
Strikes 20.6 26.5
Strike accuracy 44.3% 50.4%
Takedowns 1.0 0.6
Takedown accuracy 45.7% 62.5%
Sub attempts 0.1 0
Control time 62.9s 45.9s
Knockdowns 0.03 0.12
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 77.3% 79.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 22 29
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 79.0% 76.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 12.6% 12.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.5% 11.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 21.23 27.35
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.26 0.18
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.04 1.23
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.96 0.66
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.33 4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 52.9% 78.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 11.8% 52.2%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 41.2% 26.1%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 40.0% 83.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 85.1% 87.6%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.6% 2.4%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.3% 10.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:33 13:25
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,562.4 1,501.2
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.155 0.152
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

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