FightChoice Intelligence Report

Manon Fiorot
vs
Alexa Grasso

Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso

https://fightchoice.app/events/manon-fiorot-vs-alexa-grasso-prediction-2026-09-12

Women's Flyweight

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Sep 12, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:03 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

  • Aug 30, 2026, 17:53 UTC · Alexa Grasso
  • Aug 22, 2026, 00:04 UTC · Alexa Grasso
Model Breakdown
Manon Fiorot Alexa Grasso
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 54.0% 46.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 54.5% 45.5%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 51.5% 48.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 54.4% 45.6%
Ensemble 52.1% 47.9%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Manon Fiorot, despite a majority of individual models leaning towards Alexa Grasso. This outcome is due to calibrated weighting of the models, with Manon Fiorot's higher Elo rating and Alexa Grasso's ground strike share being key factors in the final decision.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Alexa Grasso, citing her past prime and age advantages over Manon Fiorot.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Manon Fiorot, based on her higher Elo rating and Alexa Grasso's ground strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Manon Fiorot
52.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

73% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 284 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights By submission *Based on 284 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Manon Fiorot 27.3% 15.4% 9.4% 52.1%
Alexa Grasso 25.1% 14.2% 8.6% 47.9%
284 historical bouts 52.5% 29.6% 18.0% 100.0%
Share This Intel Report
Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Manon Fiorot Alexa Grasso
UFC Record 8-2 10-5-1
Height 5' 7" 5' 5"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 65" 66"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 36 33

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Export as Image

Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

284 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 18% Submission 6:02 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Manon Fiorot Alexa Grasso
87% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2009
UFC 101: Declaration
Lightweight
Kurt Pellegrino Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
245.7s
Josh Neer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
85% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2025
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.2
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.4
Takedown accuracy
23.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.4s
Umar Nurmagomedov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.8
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
13.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.4s
85% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 25, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Lightweight
Christos Giagos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Thiago Moises Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
154s
85% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 15, 2021
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Women's Flyweight
Viviane Araujo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
45.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.3s
Katlyn Cerminara Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42.3
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 11, 2023
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Featherweight
Josh Emmett
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90.5s
Yair Rodriguez Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 9, 2016
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
Welterweight
Johny Hendricks
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
44.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41.3
Strike accuracy
49.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 20, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
50.7
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.7s
Ben Rothwell
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
39.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.7s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 20, 2010
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
Light Heavyweight
Krzysztof Soszynski Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m04s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s
Stephan Bonnar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2021
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Featherweight
Josh Emmett Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
Dan Ige
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 24, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw
Bantamweight
Julio Arce Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
37.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Andre Ewell
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
32%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 6, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
Middleweight
Brad Tavares
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.3s
Robert Bryczek Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.3s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
Welterweight
Thiago Alves
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s
Carlos Condit Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.5
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.5s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 16, 2016
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
Light Heavyweight
Glover Teixeira Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Rashad Evans
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2018
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Francis Ngannou
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
23.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Bantamweight
Jack Shore Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
65.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
Timur Valiev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s

Export as Image

Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Manon Fiorot Alexa Grasso
Per Round Average
Strikes 26.6 20.4
Strike accuracy 40.9% 41.1%
Takedowns 0.3 0.1
Takedown accuracy 29% 35.3%
Sub attempts 0 0.2
Control time 35.1s 27.2s
Knockdowns 0.03 0.06
Knockdowns absorbed 0.07 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 78.3% 66.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 23 15
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 65.4% 63.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.3% 18.2%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 11.3% 18.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.97 18.7
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.1 0.66
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.69 0.69
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.7 0.65
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.67 1.5
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 44.4% 30.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 44.4% 10.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 20.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 20.0% 20.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 86.7% 83.8%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.4% 13.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.9% 3.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:20 14:16
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,594.9 1,592.6
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.532 0.466
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline
Market IntelClick here to expand

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Manon Fiorot 52.1% 1.34 74.6% -30.2%
Alexa Grasso 47.9% 3.35 29.9% +60.4%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Manon Fiorot Alexa Grasso
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -345 1.29 +195 2.95
DraftKings -294 1.34 +235 3.35
FanDuel -270 1.37 +220 3.20
BetMGM -303 1.33 +240 3.40
Bovada -294 1.34 +240 3.40
BetOnline -303 1.33 +247 3.47

Odds captured Sep 12, 2026, 6:03 PM

Export as Image

More from Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Jean Silva vs Jose Miguel Delgado Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes David Martinez vs Dan Ige Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu Sean King vs Jessie Rosas Sean King III vs Jessie Rosas JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin

Put your own money-free bets on Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso

Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.

Create your free account