FightChoice Intelligence Report

Brandon Moreno
vs
Joseph Morales

Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales

https://fightchoice.app/events/brandon-moreno-vs-joseph-morales-prediction-2026-09-12

Flyweight

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Sep 12, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 22, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Brandon Moreno Joseph Morales
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 44.3% 55.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 46.1% 53.9%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 47.1% 52.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 30.2% 69.8%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 62.3% 37.7%
Ensemble 43.5% 56.5%
Predicted Winner
Joseph Morales
56.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

55% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 37 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 37 similar fights By submission *Based on 37 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Brandon Moreno 25.8% 11.7% 5.9% 43.5%
Joseph Morales 33.6% 15.3% 7.6% 56.5%
37 historical bouts 59.5% 27.0% 13.5% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

37 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 37 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

59% Reached the judges
41% Ended early
27% KO/TKO 14% Submission 3:27 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Brandon Moreno Joseph Morales
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 9, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Bantamweight
Albert Morales
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60.7s
Benito Lopez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 8, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Flyweight
Matt Schnell
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
Joseph Morales Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
72s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
catch/open/unknown
Nad Narimani
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
40.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Grant Dawson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
163.7s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Bantamweight
Alatengheili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
32.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Da'Mon Blackshear Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41.7
Strike accuracy
45.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 17, 2024
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Welterweight
Li Jingliang
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.5
Strike accuracy
36.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.5s
Carlos Prates Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.5
Strike accuracy
65.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 11, 2017
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
Light Heavyweight
Glover Teixeira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
45.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
212.3s
Jared Cannonier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 20, 2022
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Bantamweight
Aoriqileng Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Jay Perrin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
52.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
119.7s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2025
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Bantamweight
Raoni Barcelos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
72.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
53.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
194.3s
Payton Talbott
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.3s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2014
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale
Lightweight
Kevin Lee Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
44.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
141.3s
Jesse Ronson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2024
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Bantamweight
Jose Aldo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
43.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mario Bautista Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
34.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
145s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 15, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva
Women's Bantamweight
Ashlee Evans-Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
25.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
Ailin Perez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
57.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
232s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 27, 2024
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Welterweight
Sam Patterson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
34.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
56s
Kiefer Crosbie
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 29, 2024
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Featherweight
Jean Silva Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
61.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.5s
Charles Jourdain
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38.5s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 14, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic
Lightweight
Frank Camacho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
51.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
Manuel Torres Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
53.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 4, 2025
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Featherweight
Josh Emmett
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
—
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Youssef Zalal Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Brandon Moreno Joseph Morales
UFC Record 11-7-2 3-2
Height 5' 7" 5' 6"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 70" 69"
Stance Orthodox Switch
Age 32 32

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Brandon Moreno Joseph Morales
Per Round Average
Strikes 18.7 8.8
Strike accuracy 44.4% 40.5%
Takedowns 0.4 0.3
Takedown accuracy 39.7% 42.9%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.9
Control time 52.9s 44.7s
Knockdowns 0.06 0.11
Knockdowns absorbed 0.07 0.11
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 61.1% 91.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 8
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 18 23
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 72.1% 63.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.5% 29.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 11.5% 7.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.34 9
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.32 1.22
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.47 0.14
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.47 0.07
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.25 0.5
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No Yes
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 54.5% 71.4%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 27.3% 14.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 27.3% 57.1%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 14.3% 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 87.6% 55.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.0% 13.9%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.4% 30.4%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 16:43 7:54
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,563.3 1,516.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.268 0.191
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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