FightChoice Intelligence Report

Waldo Cortes Acosta
vs
Curtis Blaydes

Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes

https://fightchoice.app/events/waldo-cortes-acosta-vs-curtis-blaydes-prediction-2026-09-12

Heavyweight

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Sep 12, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 22, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Waldo Cortes Acosta Curtis Blaydes
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 47.9% 52.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 67.2% 32.8%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 46.9% 53.1%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 40.4% 59.6%
Ensemble 51.6% 48.4%
Predicted Winner
Waldo Cortes Acosta
51.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

57% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 218 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 218 similar fights By submission *Based on 218 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Waldo Cortes Acosta 30.3% 14.0% 7.3% 51.6%
Curtis Blaydes 28.4% 13.1% 6.9% 48.4%
218 historical bouts 58.7% 27.1% 14.2% 100.0%
Share This Intel Report Export as Image

How Similar Fights Ended

218 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 218 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

59% Reached the judges
41% Ended early
27% KO/TKO 14% Submission 5:43 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Waldo Cortes Acosta Curtis Blaydes
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2010
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
Welterweight
Thiago Alves Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
39.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.3s
John Howard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
29.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 29, 2007
UFC 79: Nemesis
Lightweight
Nate Mohr
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Manvel Gamburyan Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
59s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2018
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
Welterweight
Li Jingliang
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
32.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
Jake Matthews Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
49.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 6, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2
Lightweight
Ignacio Bahamondes Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
58.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
Christos Giagos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 24, 2014
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
Lightweight
Anthony Njokuani
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
31.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Vinc Pichel Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
50.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
72.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
171s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 2, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Women's Strawweight
Ketlen Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
54.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.7s
Piera Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
70%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
92s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 4, 2017
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
Middleweight
Michael Bisping
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
25.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Georges St-Pierre Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
49.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
65s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 7, 2022
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Women's Flyweight
Melissa Gatto
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
65.7s
Tracy Cortez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
158s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 27, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Lightweight
Rolando Bedoya
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
Jamie Mullarkey Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
17.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
113.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2012
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Lightweight
Joe Proctor
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
30.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
Ramsey Nijem Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
157.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 4, 2011
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale
Middleweight
Tim Credeur
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
45.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ed Herman Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 7, 2017
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Kevin Lee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
96.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 29, 2012
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
Heavyweight
Todd Duffee Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m04s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
64.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34s
Philip De Fries
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 21, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Lightweight
Ignacio Bahamondes Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.7s
Roosevelt Roberts
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
32.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.7s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 28, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Bantamweight
Pedro Munhoz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
43%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
49.3s
Damian Stasiak
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
29.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s

Export as Image

Tale of the Tape

Stat Waldo Cortes Acosta Curtis Blaydes
UFC Record 10-3 14-6-1
Height 6' 4" 6' 4"
Weight 260 lbs. 265 lbs.
Reach 78" 80"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 34 35

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Waldo Cortes Acosta Curtis Blaydes
Per Round Average
Strikes 24.5 16.9
Strike accuracy 48.6% 52.1%
Takedowns 0.1 1.4
Takedown accuracy 50% 47.8%
Sub attempts 0.0 0
Control time 26.8s 109.6s
Knockdowns 0.19 0.04
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.10
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 84.6% 70.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 26 20
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 70.8% 73.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.9% 11.2%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.4% 15.4%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.06 11.59
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.19 0.28
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.06 0.53
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.91 0.53
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 0.33
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 68.2% 57.1%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 63.6% 57.1%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 4.5% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 83.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 88.1% 53.6%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.2% 18.4%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.7% 28.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:16 9:23
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,598.6 1,609.9
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.224 0.575
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

More from Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva

Yair Rodriguez vs Jean Silva Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso David Martinez vs Dan Ige Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov Kelvin Gastelum vs Yousri Belgaroui JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin

Put your own money-free bets on Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes

Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.

Create your free account