FightChoice Intelligence Report
Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez
https://fightchoice.app/events/tim-elliott-vs-edgar-chairez-prediction-2026-09-12
Catch Weight
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Sep 12, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:03 UTC
Model Breakdown
Tim Elliott
Edgar Chairez
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
43.3%
56.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
47.9%
52.1%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
41.4%
58.6%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
42.2%
57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
34.5%
65.5%
Ensemble
37.8%
62.2%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Edgar Chairez is favored by the ensemble prediction. The most influential factors across models include Tim Elliott being past his prime and older, with Edgar Chairez also showing advantages in distance striking and win streaks. Despite a split in individual model opinions, the calibrated ensemble favors Edgar Chairez.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Edgar Chairez, citing that Tim Elliott is past his prime and has a lower win rate, though Tim Elliott has landed more takedowns.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Edgar Chairez, pointing to Edgar Chairez's distance strike share and Tim Elliott's age, southpaw stance, and reach disadvantage.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Edgar Chairez
62.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
78%
64%
56%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
56%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Tim Elliott | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 11-12 | 4-3-1 |
| Height | 5' 7" | 5' 7" |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach | 66" | 71" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Age | 39 | 30 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
20 historical bouts
Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Tim Elliott | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
|
Fight Performance
|
Jimmie Rivera
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
|
Fight Performance
|
Wellington Turman
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
|
Fight Performance
|
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos
|
Fight Performance
|
Vicente Luque
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
|
Tim Elliott
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
|
Jacob Volkmann
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
|
Rafael Dos Anjos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
|
Francisco Trinaldo
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
|
Michael Chiesa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
|
Michael Chiesa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
|
Fight Performance
|
Al Iaquinta
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
|
Makwan Amirkhani
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 125: Resolution
|
Daniel Roberts
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
|
Fight Performance
|
Daniel Roberts
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
56%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
|
Holly Holm
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Tim Elliott | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 16.9 | 17.6 |
| Strike accuracy | 42.4% | 47.4% |
| Takedowns | 1.2 | 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 45.5% | 0% |
| Sub attempts | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Control time | 86.7s | 6.9s |
| Knockdowns | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 47.8% | 76.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 1 | -1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 23 | 25 |
| head strike share | 59.3% | 64.7% |
| body strike share | 18.9% | 18.6% |
| leg strike share | 21.8% | 16.7% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 14.47 | 21.6 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.43 | 0.8 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.9 | 0.86 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.43 | 0.000 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | Yes | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 27.3% | 78.9% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 21.1% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 27.3% | 57.9% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 41.7% | 33.3% |
| distance strike share | 66.2% | 95.5% |
| clinch strike share | 15.8% | 1.9% |
| ground strike share | 18.0% | 2.6% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 12:23 | 9:51 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,523.2 | 1,512.9 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.196 | 0.130 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 37.8% | 2.60 | 38.5% | -1.6% |
| Edgar Chairez | 62.2% | 1.52 | 65.8% | -5.5% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
No bet recommended at the price we recorded.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Tim Elliott | Edgar Chairez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | +155 | 2.55 | -250 | 1.40 |
| DraftKings | +160 | 2.60 | -192 | 1.52 |
| FanDuel | +172 | 2.72 | -204 | 1.49 |
| BetMGM | +165 | 2.65 | -200 | 1.50 |
| Bovada | +163 | 2.63 | -189 | 1.53 |
| BetOnline | +159 | 2.59 | -189 | 1.53 |
Odds captured Sep 12, 2026, 6:03 PM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Tim Elliott
Edgar Chairez
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