FightChoice Intelligence Report

Tim Elliott
vs
Edgar Chairez

Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez

https://fightchoice.app/events/tim-elliott-vs-edgar-chairez-prediction-2026-09-12

Flyweight

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Sep 12, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 22, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Tim Elliott Edgar Chairez
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 39.2% 60.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 48.3% 51.7%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 34.2% 65.8%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 24.3% 75.7%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 33.0% 67.0%
Ensemble 29.8% 70.2%
Predicted Winner
Edgar Chairez
70.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

48% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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How Similar Fights Ended

14 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Tim Elliott Edgar Chairez
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 30, 2016
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Bantamweight
Iuri Alcantara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
38.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Jimmie Rivera Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 2, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
Women's Flyweight
Ivana Petrovic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
155s
Jamey-Lyn Horth Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 12, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos
Welterweight
Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.2
Strike accuracy
48.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.8s
Vicente Luque Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.4
Strike accuracy
51.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.6
Takedown accuracy
72.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144.2s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Middleweight
Sam Alvey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
55.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38s
Wellington Turman Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
58%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
43.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
John Makdessi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2010
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Welterweight
Mike Guymon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
Daniel Roberts Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2012
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
Lightweight
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
35.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
134s
Anthony Njokuani
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
36.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Lightweight
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
26.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Al Iaquinta Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
63.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Welterweight
Michael Chiesa Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.8
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.8
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
184.2s
Neil Magny
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.4
Strike accuracy
24%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Featherweight
Makwan Amirkhani Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
Mike Grundy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 16, 2025
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Flyweight
Tim Elliott Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Kai Asakura
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
24.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.5s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 25, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
Women's Bantamweight
Holly Holm Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
50.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
196.3s
Yana Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.3s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 6, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
Middleweight
Nick Ring
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
46.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
56.3s
Caio Magalhaes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
50.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
114.3s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 14, 2013
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
14.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Demetrious Johnson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 14, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza
Women's Strawweight
Ashley Yoder
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
37.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Emily Ducote Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39
Strike accuracy
55.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Tim Elliott Edgar Chairez
UFC Record 10-12 4-2-1
Height 5' 7" 5' 7"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 66" 71"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 39 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Tim Elliott Edgar Chairez
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.6 17.2
Strike accuracy 43.4% 47.5%
Takedowns 1.1 0
Takedown accuracy 45.5% 0%
Sub attempts 0.3 0.5
Control time 85s 8.2s
Knockdowns 0.04 0.23
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 45.5% 79.2%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 22 24
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 57.8% 63.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.5% 18.5%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 22.7% 18.5%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 14.21 21.67
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.46 0.58
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.74 0.74
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.9 0.85
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.38 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 30.0% 78.9%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 21.1%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 30.0% 57.9%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 41.7% 40.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 66.1% 95.3%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 16.4% 1.9%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 17.5% 2.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 12:16 9:00
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,506.1 1,530.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.133 0.109
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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