FightChoice Intelligence Report

Jean Silva
vs
Jose Miguel Delgado

Jean Silva vs Jose Miguel Delgado

https://fightchoice.app/events/jean-silva-vs-jose-miguel-delgado-prediction-2026-09-12

Featherweight

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Sep 12, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 28, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jean Silva Jose Miguel Delgado
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 51.6% 48.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 53.2% 46.8%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 51.9% 48.1%
Predicted Winner
Jean Silva
51.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

19% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 130 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 130 similar fights By submission *Based on 130 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Jean Silva 23.6% 18.8% 9.6% 51.9%
Jose Miguel Delgado 21.8% 17.4% 8.9% 48.1%
130 historical bouts 45.4% 36.2% 18.5% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

130 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 130 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

45% Reached the judges
55% Ended early
36% KO/TKO 18% Submission 5:49 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jean Silva Jose Miguel Delgado
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2024
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Lightweight
Damon Jackson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
51.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Jim Miller Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Featherweight
Charles Jourdain Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45.7
Strike accuracy
60.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49s
Andre Ewell
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
32.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 11, 2026
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Featherweight
Aaron Pico Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.3
Strike accuracy
55.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
46.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.3s
Patricio Pitbull
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
55.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 3, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
62.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
153.5s
Deiveson Figueiredo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.5s
Jared Cannonier Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2024
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Flyweight
Jimmy Flick Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.5
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.5s
Malcolm Gordon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.5
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
126.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 5, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy
Flyweight
Luis Gurule
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.5s
Ode Osbourne Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 25, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Featherweight
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
59.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
150.7s
TJ Brown
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
58s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 23, 2016
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Welterweight
Alex Oliveira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
74.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
227s
James Moontasri
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Featherweight
Yair Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
Brian Ortega Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
107s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 5, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
Flyweight
Ode Osbourne
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
22.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.5s
Asu Almabayev Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
65%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
162s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2023
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Brian Kelleher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
68%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 11, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Middleweight
Marco Tulio Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m04s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
Ihor Potieria
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Lightweight
Rafael Fiziev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
62.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
56.3s
Marc Diakiese
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Featherweight
Yair Rodriguez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Brian Ortega
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
62.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Jean Silva Jose Miguel Delgado
Career Record 26-14-3 8-1
Height 5' 7" —
Weight 145 lbs. —
Reach 69" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 29 —

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jean Silva Jose Miguel Delgado
Per Round Average
Strikes 19.6 —
Strike accuracy 53% —
Takedowns 0.4 —
Takedown accuracy 71.4% —
Sub attempts 0.2 —
Control time 5.5s —
Knockdowns 0.36 —
Knockdowns absorbed 0.07 —
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 69.7% 92.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 5
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 33 13
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 65.0% 0.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 27.4% 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.7% 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 19 1.374
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.5 0.747
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.21 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.14 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 3 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 82.6% 91.7%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 34.8% 41.7%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 47.8% 50.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 70.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 83.6% 0.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 12.0% 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.4% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:34 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,582.5 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.228 0.032
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Jean Silva 51.9% 1.23 81.3% -36.2%
Jose Miguel Delgado 48.1% 4.40 22.7% +111.6%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Jean Silva Jose Miguel Delgado
US Decimal US Decimal
DraftKings -435 1.23 +340 4.40
BetOnline -417 1.24 +355 4.55

Odds captured Aug 28, 2026, 6:02 AM

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