FightChoice Intelligence Report

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Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa

https://fightchoice.app/events/jared-gordon-vs-melquizael-costa-prediction-2026-11-14

Lightweight

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Nov 14, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expand

As Jared Gordon steps into the Octagon against Melquizael Costa at UFC 334, fans can expect a thrilling clash of styles in the lightweight division. Gordon, at 38 years old, carries the weight of experience with a UFC record of 9-8-1. He boasts a striking accuracy of 53.7% and a per-round control time of 93.2 seconds, revealing his ability to dictate the pace of a fight. On the other hand, Costa, the younger competitor at 30, holds a record of 7-3, with a remarkable finish rate of 66.7%. This matchup echoes the dynamics seen in the classic bout between Jim Miller and Danny Castillo, where a veteran's savvy grappling met a rising star's explosive striking.

With a significant reach advantage of 3 inches and a higher win rate of 77.4%, Costa's southpaw stance poses a unique challenge for Gordon, who will need to leverage his striking volume and defensive capabilities to avoid being overwhelmed. Historically, fights like these often favor the younger, more dynamic fighters, as seen in bouts like Alexander Gustafsson versus Jimi Manuwa. As both fighters seek to turn the tide in their careers, this encounter promises to be a high-stakes showdown that could redefine their trajectories in the UFC.

#JaredGordon #MelquizaelCosta #UFC334 #Lightweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 26, 2026, 06:02 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jared Gordon Melquizael Costa
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 65.0% 35.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 57.6% 42.4%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 29.8% 70.2%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 18.2% 81.8%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 26.2% 73.8%
Ensemble 40.0% 60.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble favors Melquizael Costa, driven by his age and past prime advantages over Jared Gordon, as well as his higher win rate. While some models noted Jared Gordon's striking advantages, the overall calibration and weighting led to the ensemble's pick for Melquizael Costa.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Melquizael Costa, citing his age advantage and higher win rate over Jared Gordon.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Melquizael Costa, highlighting his age, Elo rating, reach, and southpaw stance against Jared Gordon.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Melquizael Costa
60.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

49% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 45 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 45 similar fights By submission *Based on 45 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Jared Gordon 20.4% 10.7% 8.9% 40.0%
Melquizael Costa 30.7% 16.0% 13.3% 60.0%
45 historical bouts 51.1% 26.7% 22.2% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Jared Gordon Melquizael Costa
UFC Record 9-8-1 7-3
Height 5' 9" 5' 10"
Weight 155 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 68" 71"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 38 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

45 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 45 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
27% KO/TKO 22% Submission 5:24 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jared Gordon Melquizael Costa
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 25, 2015
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
Lightweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
34%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.7s
Jim Miller Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 8, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
Light Heavyweight
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m18s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
102s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
56.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz
Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
4
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
114s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 30, 2013
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Lightweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s
Nate Diaz Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
Women's Bantamweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
172.7s
Yana Santos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
78.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
103s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik
Women's Bantamweight
Yana Santos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
75.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
265.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
23.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 30, 2016
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Heavyweight
Ben Rothwell Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.5
Strike accuracy
38.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.5
Strike accuracy
51.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Featherweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Yadier del Valle Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m35s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
83.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 6, 2021
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Bantamweight
Dominick Cruz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.7s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Lightweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Jim Miller Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Featherweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
29.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
Melquizael Costa Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
48.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2006
UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2
Heavyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
44.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
27.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.7s
Christian Wellisch Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
29.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.3s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 6, 2021
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Bantamweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
60.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88.3s
Marlon Vera Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Women's Bantamweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
48.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
128s
Alice Pereira Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
Welterweight
Sean Brady Winner
Finish 4th Rnd, 1m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
61.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
71.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
167.5s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.8
Strike accuracy
65.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.8s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jared Gordon Melquizael Costa UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 25.6 19.3 13.2
Strike accuracy 53.7% 47% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.6 0.5 0.4
Takedown accuracy 34.8% 35.5% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0.3 0.2
Control time 93.2s 45.1s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.05 0.08 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.07 0.08 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 52.9% 77.4% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 17 31 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 74.4% 46.8% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.3% 29.9% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.3% 23.4% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.8 14.29 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.42 1.08 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.03 0.44 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.82 0.94 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.67 1.33 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 66.7% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 33.3% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 33.3% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 75.0% 57.1% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 69.7% 82.7% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 12.3% 9.1% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 18.0% 8.2% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:49 10:46 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,521.8 1,569.6 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.148 0.239 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak —

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