FightChoice Intelligence Report

Alonzo Menifield
vs
Iwo Baraniewski

Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski

https://fightchoice.app/events/alonzo-menifield-vs-iwo-baraniewski-prediction-2026-09-19

Light Heavyweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 29, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Alonzo Menifield Iwo Baraniewski
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 25.3% 74.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 38.6% 61.4%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 24.3% 75.7%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 34.9% 65.1%
Ensemble 27.9% 72.1%
Predicted Winner
Iwo Baraniewski
72.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 1m15s (6m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

27% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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How Similar Fights Ended

14 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Alonzo Menifield Iwo Baraniewski
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Bantamweight
JP Buys
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.7
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.7s
Montel Jackson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
58.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
201s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 2, 2019
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jairzinho Rozenstruik Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 20, 2022
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Light Heavyweight
Harry Hunsucker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Tyson Pedro Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Middleweight
Eryk Anders
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.4
Strike accuracy
41.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
27.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45.2s
Lyoto Machida Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.4
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.6s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 29, 2009
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Lightweight
Evan Dunham Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
36%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.7s
Marcus Aurelio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
26.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Light Heavyweight
Ovince Saint Preux Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
29.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.5s
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.5
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 4, 2025
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Welterweight
Nikolay Veretennikov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.3s
Punahele Soriano Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
72.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
36.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
251.7s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Featherweight
Makwan Amirkhani Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
89.5s
Chris Fishgold
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 2, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Middleweight
Misha Cirkunov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
29.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
82s
Krzysztof Jotko Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 1, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Heavyweight
Mark Hunt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
31.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Justin Willis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
57.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 7, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Welterweight
Alex Morono
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
27.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Daniil Donchenko Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.3
Strike accuracy
61.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.7s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 6, 2021
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Middleweight
Chris Curtis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Phil Hawes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
48
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 1, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
Welterweight
Max Griffin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.3s
Michael Morales Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 16, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Carlos Felipe
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.3s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 20, 2010
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
Welterweight
Chris Lytle Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
14.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Brian Foster
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
22.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Alonzo Menifield Iwo Baraniewski
UFC Record 11-6-1 3-0
Height 6' 0" 6' 0"
Weight 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach 76" 73"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 38 27

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Alonzo Menifield Iwo Baraniewski
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.4 12.7
Strike accuracy 53.5% 56.7%
Takedowns 0.1 0
Takedown accuracy 35.7% 0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0
Control time 59.9s 10.7s
Knockdowns 0.20 1.33
Knockdowns absorbed 0.14 0.33
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 64.7% 80.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 4
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 17 5
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 80.5% 76.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.8% 10.5%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.7% 13.2%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.28 10
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.16 0
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.56 0
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 0
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.67 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 63.6% 100.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 45.5% 100.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 18.2% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 66.7% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 76.8% 31.6%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.9% 15.8%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.3% 52.6%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:56 1:07
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,568.9 1,542.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.131 0.040
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

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