FightChoice Intelligence Report

Giga Chikadze
vs
Joanderson Brito

Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito

https://fightchoice.app/events/giga-chikadze-vs-joanderson-brito-prediction-2026-09-19

Featherweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 29, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Giga Chikadze Joanderson Brito
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 51.9% 48.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 25.0% 75.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 24.3% 75.7%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 33.0% 67.0%
Ensemble 32.0% 68.0%
Predicted Winner
Joanderson Brito
68.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

54% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 151 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 151 similar fights By submission *Based on 151 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Giga Chikadze 17.4% 9.1% 5.5% 32.0%
Joanderson Brito 36.9% 19.4% 11.7% 68.0%
151 historical bouts 54.3% 28.5% 17.2% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

151 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 151 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
28% KO/TKO 17% Submission 4:43 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Giga Chikadze Joanderson Brito
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 14, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov
Bantamweight
Raoni Barcelos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
54.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Umar Nurmagomedov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
70.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 2, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
Heavyweight
Ciryl Gane Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
54.5
Strike accuracy
69.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.5s
Serghei Spivac
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2020
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Charles Oliveira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
65.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
233s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 3, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
Women's Bantamweight
Germaine de Randamie Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
40.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Julianna Pena
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
29.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
118.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 27, 2011
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
Lightweight
Spencer Fisher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.5s
Thiago Tavares Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m51s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
38.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
200.5s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 9, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Bantamweight
Marlon Moraes Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Aljamain Sterling
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 6, 2010
UFC 109: Relentless
Lightweight
Phillipe Nover
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
39.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Rob Emerson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
49.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
63.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
184s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 26, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
catch/open/unknown
King Green
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
69.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Islam Makhachev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
117s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 12, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
Welterweight
Niko Price
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
30.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
Themba Gorimbo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
53.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
77.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
184.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 11, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson
Middleweight
Trevor Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Thales Leites Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 25, 2007
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon
Lightweight
Clay Guida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
31.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
31.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
137.3s
Din Thomas Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
29.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 19, 2013
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Middleweight
Tim Boetsch Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
53.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
CB Dollaway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
78.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 6, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
Heavyweight
Augusto Sakai
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.5s
Serghei Spivac Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
67.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
198.5s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 20, 2022
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
Alexandr Romanov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
100.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 8, 2007
UFC 75: Champion vs Champion
Welterweight
Paul Taylor
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67s
Marcus Davis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
150s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Giga Chikadze Joanderson Brito
UFC Record 8-4 7-3
Height 6' 0" 5' 8"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 74" 72"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 38 31

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Giga Chikadze Joanderson Brito
Per Round Average
Strikes 17.9 9.4
Strike accuracy 42.2% 49%
Takedowns 0.1 0.9
Takedown accuracy 40% 66.7%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.4
Control time 5.8s 94.9s
Knockdowns 0.18 0.05
Knockdowns absorbed 0.06 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 66.7% 76.2%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 20.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -3 2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 12 21
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 57.7% 51.6%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 26.1% 14.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.1% 33.5%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 16.09 10.15
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.3 0.55
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.67 0.6
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.32 0.86
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1 0.5
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 37.5% 87.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 37.5% 37.5%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 50.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 25.0% 40.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 91.3% 64.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.8% 16.5%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.8% 19.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 12:46 8:45
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,551.2 1,564.8
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.092 0.149
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

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