FightChoice Intelligence Report

Joshua Van
vs
Alexandre Pantoja

Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja

https://fightchoice.app/events/joshua-van-vs-alexandre-pantoja-prediction-2026-09-19

Flyweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 29, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Joshua Van Alexandre Pantoja
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 52.8% 47.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 70.6% 29.4%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 57.2% 42.8%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 75.7% 24.3%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 65.0% 35.0%
Ensemble 71.3% 28.7%
Predicted Winner
Joshua Van
71.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (25m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

63% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 132 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 132 similar fights By submission *Based on 132 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Joshua Van 34.6% 24.3% 12.4% 71.3%
Alexandre Pantoja 13.9% 9.8% 5.0% 28.7%
132 historical bouts 48.5% 34.1% 17.4% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

132 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 132 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

48% Reached the judges
52% Ended early
34% KO/TKO 17% Submission 4:46 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Joshua Van Alexandre Pantoja
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 6, 2025
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Flyweight
Joshua Van Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alexandre Pantoja
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2016
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Bantamweight
Jimmie Rivera Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
33.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Urijah Faber
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
19.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2017
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.5s
Jacare Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2018
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Light Heavyweight
Volkan Oezdemir
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Daniel Cormier Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
52.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
51.5s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 18, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Welterweight
Michael Morales Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
Jake Matthews
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2020
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Heavyweight
Maurice Greene
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Aleksei Oleinik Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
31.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
222.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 19, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.5
Strike accuracy
46.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Donald Cerrone Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
49.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Welterweight
Alberto Mina Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
37.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
87s
Mike Pyle
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 21, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
Middleweight
Derek Brunson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
Roan Carneiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 17, 2011
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Middleweight
Alan Belcher Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
64.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
178s
Jason MacDonald
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Welterweight
Bryan Barberena
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.5s
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
80%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
198s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 17, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Middleweight
Michal Oleksiejczuk Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
51.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
72s
Cody Brundage
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
113s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 16, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux
Featherweight
Robert Peralta
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Thiago Tavares Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
58.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
233s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 17, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Featherweight
Lucas Almeida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Pat Sabatini Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
77.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
193.5s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2015
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Middleweight
Yoel Romero Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
39.3s
Jacare Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
57.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Joshua Van Alexandre Pantoja
UFC Record 10-1 14-4
Height 5' 5" 5' 5"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 65" 67"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 24 36

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Joshua Van Alexandre Pantoja
Per Round Average
Strikes 38.4 19.6
Strike accuracy 57.4% 50.3%
Takedowns 0.3 0.8
Takedown accuracy 61.5% 47.6%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.3
Control time 20s 86.6s
Knockdowns 0.22 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.03 0.02
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 91.3% 77.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 7 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 23 18
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 72.5% 63.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.1% 21.5%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.4% 15.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 26.53 17.35
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.56 0.5
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.4 0.41
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.92 0.65
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 3 0.33
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 61.9% 57.1%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 52.4% 14.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 9.5% 42.9%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 25.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 87.0% 81.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.6% 10.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.4% 8.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:16 11:56
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,631.1 1,633.8
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.384 0.302
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Joshua Van 71.3% 1.89 52.9% +34.7%
Alexandre Pantoja 28.7% 1.93 51.8% -44.6%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 27% of bankroll on Joshua Van at 1.89 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Joshua Van Alexandre Pantoja
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -125 1.80 -125 1.80
DraftKings -112 1.89 -108 1.93
FanDuel -120 1.83 -106 1.94
BetOnline -112 1.89 -108 1.93

Odds captured Aug 29, 2026, 12:01 AM

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