FightChoice Intelligence Report

Marlon Vera
vs
Charles Jourdain

Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain

https://fightchoice.app/events/marlon-vera-vs-charles-jourdain-prediction-2026-09-19

Bantamweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 29, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Marlon Vera Charles Jourdain
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 44.1% 55.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 51.1% 48.9%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 46.5% 53.5%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 24.3% 75.7%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 45.0% 55.0%
Ensemble 38.2% 61.8%
Predicted Winner
Charles Jourdain
61.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

63% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Marlon Vera 20.5% 12.1% 5.6% 38.2%
Charles Jourdain 33.2% 19.6% 9.0% 61.8%
281 historical bouts 53.7% 31.7% 14.6% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 15% Submission 6:29 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Marlon Vera Charles Jourdain
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 17, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Women's Strawweight
Elise Reed
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Denise Gomes Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
127s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 2, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.5
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
108s
Brando Pericic Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44.5
Strike accuracy
54.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
Welterweight
Sergio Moraes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45.3s
James Krause Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 11, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Welterweight
Vicente Luque
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
30.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Joel Alvarez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
60.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
130s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 5, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
catch/open/unknown
Cory Sandhagen Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.8
Strike accuracy
40.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.4
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
235.6s
Rob Font
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.8
Strike accuracy
18.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.6s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 27, 2024
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Women's Strawweight
Bruna Brasil Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
59.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
111.7s
Molly McCann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
70.3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 14, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza
Women's Flyweight
Viviane Araujo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
141s
Jennifer Maia
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 13, 2019
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd
Bantamweight
Jonathan Martinez Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
28.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Pingyuan Liu
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
18%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Featherweight
Chad Mendes Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
84.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
Ricardo Lamas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 10, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
50.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.7s
Tecia Pennington
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
Bantamweight
Davey Grant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
32.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Daniel Marcos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
34.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2022
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Women's Strawweight
Melissa Martinez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
57.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54s
Elise Reed Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2024
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Middleweight
Roman Dolidze Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
57.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
170s
Kevin Holland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
64.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2020
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Featherweight
Andre Fili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
33.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41.7s
Sodiq Yusuff Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 14, 2019
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Welterweight
Colby Covington
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.6
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kamaru Usman Winner
Finish 5th Rnd, 4m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.2s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Marlon Vera Charles Jourdain
UFC Record 15-11 9-7-1
Height 5' 8" 5' 9"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 70" 69"
Stance Switch Switch
Age 33 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Marlon Vera Charles Jourdain
Per Round Average
Strikes 19.7 25.0
Strike accuracy 47.6% 49.4%
Takedowns 0.2 0.1
Takedown accuracy 39.3% 21.7%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.2
Control time 24.5s 32.5s
Knockdowns 0.17 0.17
Knockdowns absorbed 0.01 0.10
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 57.7% 56.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 20.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -4 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 26 16
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 54.1% 54.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.6% 28.8%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 24.3% 16.8%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 25.2 19.46
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.35 0.9
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.15 1.16
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.68 0.66
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.6 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes Yes
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 73.3% 66.7%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 46.7% 22.2%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 26.7% 44.4%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 28.6%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 79.9% 74.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.9% 19.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.2% 6.9%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:36 11:18
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,553.5 1,546.6
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.432 0.183
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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