FightChoice Intelligence Report
Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi
https://fightchoice.app/events/patricio-pitbull-vs-dooho-choi-prediction-2026-09-19
Featherweight
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:05 UTC
Model Breakdown
Patricio Pitbull
Dooho Choi
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight
47.0%
53.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight
51.0%
49.0%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight
29.2%
70.8%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
30.2%
69.8%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight
28.2%
71.8%
Ensemble
30.9%
69.1%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble prediction favors Dooho Choi, driven by Patricio Pitbull's age and past prime status across multiple models. Dooho Choi also benefits from reach and striking advantages according to some models, while Patricio Pitbull's higher sig strike accuracy and ground strike share were noted by Model β and Model λ respectively. Despite a split in individual model reasoning, the combined prediction leans towards Choi.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Dooho Choi, citing Patricio Pitbull's age and takedowns absorbed as key factors.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Dooho Choi, pointing to Patricio Pitbull's age, sig strikes absorbed, Elo rating, and reach advantage.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Dooho Choi
69.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 1m15s (6m15s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
74%
55%
47%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
47%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 67 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 67 similar fights | By submission *Based on 67 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patricio Pitbull | 15.2% | 10.1% | 5.5% | 30.9% |
| Dooho Choi | 34.1% | 22.7% | 12.4% | 69.1% |
| 67 historical bouts | 49.3% | 32.8% | 17.9% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Patricio Pitbull | Dooho Choi |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 1-1 | 6-4-1 |
| Height | 5' 6" | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach | 67" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 39 | 35 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
67 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 67 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
49%
Reached the judges
51%
Ended early
33%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
4:19
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
20
Rnd 2
7
Rnd 3
6
Rnd 4
0
Rnd 5
1
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Patricio Pitbull | Dooho Choi |
|---|---|---|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
|
Fight Performance
|
Michael Morales
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
|
Fight Performance
|
Krzysztof Jotko
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
|
Fight Performance
|
Alden Coria
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
|
Fight Performance
|
Aleksandar Rakic
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
|
Fight Performance
|
Uros Medic
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
|
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
|
Fight Performance
|
Renee Forte
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
|
Fight Performance
|
Cathal Pendred
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
|
Dustin Stoltzfus
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
|
Sergio Moraes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Damian Pinas
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
|
Thiago Santos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
|
Fight Performance
|
Zhang Mingyang
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 69: Shootout
|
Matt Serra
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
|
Fight Performance
|
Max Holloway
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Patricio Pitbull | Dooho Choi | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 21.8 | 20.8 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 53.4% | 54.9% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 0 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 0% | 53.8% | 33.0% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 1.3s | 44.2s | 48.9s |
| Knockdowns | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 80.0% | 60.0% | 45.8% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 40.0% | 60.0% | 37.6% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 1 | -1 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 35 | 10 | — |
| head strike share | 65.5% | 76.4% | — |
| body strike share | 26.4% | 14.8% | — |
| leg strike share | 8.0% | 8.8% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 30 | 21.44 | 15.2 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 1.5 | 0.33 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | — | 0.14 | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | — | 0.24 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | — | 1 | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 67.9% | 100.0% | 46.5% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 28.6% | 100.0% | 27.9% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 39.3% | 0.0% | 18.7% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 28.6% | 75.0% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 72.4% | 81.6% | — |
| clinch strike share | 17.2% | 10.1% | — |
| ground strike share | 10.3% | 8.3% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 9:14 | 7:10 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,502.6 | 1,531.5 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.279 | 0.118 | 0.069 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak | — |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patricio Pitbull | 30.9% | 3.10 | 32.3% | -4.4% |
| Dooho Choi | 69.1% | 1.39 | 71.9% | -3.9% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
8%
of bankroll
on Dooho Choi at 1.45 (BetOnline)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Patricio Pitbull | Dooho Choi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| DraftKings | +210 | 3.10 | -256 | 1.39 |
| FanDuel | +230 | 3.30 | -278 | 1.36 |
| BetOnline | +208 | 3.08 | -250 | 1.40 |
Odds captured Sep 20, 2026, 12:03 AM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Patricio Pitbull
Dooho Choi
More from UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne Michael Aswell vs JooSang Yoo Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson BritoPut your own money-free bets on Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi
Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.
Create your free account