FightChoice Intelligence Report

Ryan Gandra
vs
Ozzy Diaz

Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz

https://fightchoice.app/events/ryan-gandra-vs-ozzy-diaz-prediction-2026-09-19

Middleweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 29, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Ryan Gandra Ozzy Diaz
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 62.7% 37.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 60.5% 39.5%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 59.3% 40.7%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 63.2% 36.8%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 65.9% 34.1%
Ensemble 68.1% 31.9%
Predicted Winner
Ryan Gandra
68.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

17% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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How Similar Fights Ended

11 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Ryan Gandra Ozzy Diaz
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 20, 2010
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
Welterweight
Brian Foster
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
22.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
Chris Lytle Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
14.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 12, 2022
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
Women's Strawweight
Silvana Gomez Juarez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
29.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
Karolina Kowalkiewicz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
36.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
81s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 14, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Light Heavyweight
Jimmy Crute
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s
Misha Cirkunov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
148s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 1, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Heavyweight
Justin Willis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
57.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mark Hunt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
31.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 26, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
Lightweight
Jon Tuck
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75.3s
Damien Brown Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
26.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 24, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2
Welterweight
Song Kenan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
40.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Alex Morono Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.3s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 24, 2015
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson
Welterweight
Albert Tumenov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
43.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
Nicholas Musoke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
34.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25.7s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 23, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira
Lightweight
Tony Sims
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
79.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.3s
Olivier Aubin-Mercier Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
242.3s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Welterweight
Khaos Williams
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
43.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Michel Pereira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
55.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Serghei Spivac Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
6
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
152s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2017
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
Featherweight
Myles Jury Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
49.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94.7s
Ricky Glenn
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.7
Strike accuracy
16.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov
Middleweight
Brunno Ferreira Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m51s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Dustin Stoltzfus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
91s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 9, 2023
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Featherweight
Gabriel Miranda Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
32s
Shane Young
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 9, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar
Light Heavyweight
Ed Herman Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
Khadis Ibragimov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
124.3s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 6, 2021
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Middleweight
Phil Hawes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
48
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chris Curtis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Ryan Gandra Ozzy Diaz
Career Record 10-1 10-4
Height 6' 1" 6' 4"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 74" 79"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 31 35

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Ryan Gandra Ozzy Diaz
Per Round Average
Strikes 12 25
Strike accuracy 49% 51.2%
Takedowns 0 0
Takedown accuracy 0% 0%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 2.5s 10.5s
Knockdowns 1 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.33
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 75.0% 77.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 75.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 4 9
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 91.7% 85.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.3% 10.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 4.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 2.5 28.5
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.17
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.94
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.06
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 85.7%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 57.1%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 28.6%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 75.0% 96.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 3.3%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 25.0% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 0:58 7:52
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,529.8 1,488.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.020 0.059
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

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