FightChoice Intelligence Report

Edmen Shahbazyan
vs
Brunno Ferreira

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira

https://fightchoice.app/events/edmen-shahbazyan-vs-brunno-ferreira-prediction-2026-09-19

Middleweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 29, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Edmen Shahbazyan Brunno Ferreira
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 39.5% 60.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 57.6% 42.4%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 60.9% 39.1%
Ensemble 54.3% 45.7%
Predicted Winner
Edmen Shahbazyan
54.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

34% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Edmen Shahbazyan 27.8% 16.8% 9.7% 54.3%
Brunno Ferreira 23.4% 14.2% 8.1% 45.7%
281 historical bouts 51.2% 31.0% 17.8% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
31% KO/TKO 18% Submission 4:48 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Edmen Shahbazyan Brunno Ferreira
86% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 23, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35
Strike accuracy
68.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.5s
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.5s
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Women's Flyweight
Melissa Gatto
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
96s
Dione Barbosa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
122s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.2
Strike accuracy
41.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.8s
Jacare Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
101s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho
Featherweight
Mairon Santos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Kaan Ofli
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.5s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 4, 2024
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Women's Flyweight
Ernesta Kareckaite
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
34%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.3s
Dione Barbosa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
18.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 8, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Women's Flyweight
Marina Rodriguez Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.2s
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.6
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.8s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Welterweight
Jose Souza Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ding Meng
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Lightweight
Joel Alvarez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Joe Duffy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 28, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Middleweight
Damian Pinas Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
65.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49s
Wes Schultz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
23.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
55.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
Joaquim Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
26.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 13, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
Welterweight
Daniil Donchenko Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39
Strike accuracy
57.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63s
Rodrigo Sezinando
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
27.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 26, 2013
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Featherweight
Hatsu Hioki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
Clay Guida Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
23.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
171.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
Bantamweight
Kyung Ho Kang
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.7s
Rani Yahya Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
212s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 15, 2020
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
70.4s
Daniel Cormier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
57.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.6s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 15, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik
Heavyweight
Shamil Abdurakhimov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.3s
Andrei Arlovski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
31%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Edmen Shahbazyan Brunno Ferreira
UFC Record 9-6 6-4
Height 6' 2" 5' 10"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 75" 72"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 33

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Edmen Shahbazyan Brunno Ferreira
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.4 13.5
Strike accuracy 48.6% 48.3%
Takedowns 0.4 0.3
Takedown accuracy 36.4% 22.7%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.2
Control time 42.3s 16s
Knockdowns 0.23 0.18
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.06
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 60.0% 78.9%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 15 19
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 72.2% 70.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.9% 17.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 6.9% 12.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 16.13 15.94
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.63 0.71
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.22 0.26
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.69 0.32
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.67 0.5
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 77.8% 93.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 60.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 11.1% 33.3%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 66.7% 75.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 71.2% 92.1%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.0% 3.9%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 15.8% 3.9%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:22 7:20
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,548.9 1,530.6
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.094 0.163
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

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