FightChoice Intelligence Report

Arman Tsarukyan
vs
Mauricio Ruffy

Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

https://fightchoice.app/events/arman-tsarukyan-vs-mauricio-ruffy-prediction-2026-09-19

Lightweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 29, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Arman Tsarukyan Mauricio Ruffy
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 55.6% 44.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 36.3% 63.7%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 64.2% 35.8%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 69.8% 30.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 68.7% 31.3%
Ensemble 62.2% 37.8%
Predicted Winner
Arman Tsarukyan
62.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

36% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 104 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 104 similar fights By submission *Based on 104 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Arman Tsarukyan 32.3% 19.7% 10.2% 62.2%
Mauricio Ruffy 19.6% 12.0% 6.2% 37.8%
104 historical bouts 51.9% 31.7% 16.3% 100.0%
Share This Intel Report Export as Image

How Similar Fights Ended

104 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 104 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 16% Submission 5:53 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Arman Tsarukyan Mauricio Ruffy
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2006
UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2
Heavyweight
Carmelo Marrero
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Gabriel Gonzaga Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
3
Control time (Per Rnd)
177s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 26, 2020
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
Lightweight
Alex Da Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
48.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
105.7s
Brad Riddell Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Middleweight
JunYong Park Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
65.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
178s
Denis Tiuliulin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 1, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Lightweight
Alex Oliveira Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
81.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
164s
Will Brooks
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
94.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
74.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 31, 2013
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Welterweight
Pascal Krauss
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Hyun Gyu Lim Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 11, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Heavyweight
Karl Williams Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
65.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
61.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
204.3s
Lukasz Brzeski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
56.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.7s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 16, 2016
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
Featherweight
Hacran Dias
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
42%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Cub Swanson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
56.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.7s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz
Flyweight
Ray Borg Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
77.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3.3
Takedown accuracy
52.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
227.3s
Rogerio Bontorin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 5, 2009
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale
Lightweight
Frankie Edgar Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.5s
Matt Veach
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60.5s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 27, 2016
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Lightweight
Chad Laprise Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
Thibault Gouti
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 17, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Bantamweight
Tony Gravely Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
137s
Anthony Birchak
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.5s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux
Flyweight
Dustin Ortiz Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
71.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
215s
Willie Gates
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Heavyweight
Ryan Spann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
26.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s
Waldo Cortes Acosta Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
59.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.5s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2024
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Women's Bantamweight
Jasmine Jasudavicius Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
77.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
228.3s
Priscila Cachoeira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 3, 2018
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
Light Heavyweight
Jordan Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
55.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
18.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144s
Adam Milstead
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
43.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

Export as Image

Tale of the Tape

Stat Arman Tsarukyan Mauricio Ruffy
UFC Record 10-2 5-1
Height 5' 7" 5' 11"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 72" 75"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 29 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Arman Tsarukyan Mauricio Ruffy
Per Round Average
Strikes 17.7 17.5
Strike accuracy 50% 57%
Takedowns 1 0
Takedown accuracy 37.6% 0%
Sub attempts 0.0 0
Control time 116.8s 11.5s
Knockdowns 0.09 0.60
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 81.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 5 2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 12 16
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 66.3% 81.7%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.9% 6.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 11.8% 11.4%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 8.28 16.4
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.31 0.3
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.77 0.25
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.75 0.73
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.67 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 92.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 40.0% 92.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 10.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 61.6% 84.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.4% 2.9%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 31.0% 13.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 12:16 7:17
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,637.6 1,561.8
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.211 0.134
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

Market Odds

Sportsbook Arman Tsarukyan Mauricio Ruffy
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -476 1.21 +260 3.60
BetOnline -385 1.26 +303 4.03

Odds captured Aug 29, 2026, 12:01 AM

Export as Image

More from UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz Michael Aswell vs JooSang Yoo

Put your own money-free bets on Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.

Create your free account