FightChoice Intelligence Report

Casey O'Neill
vs
Eduarda Moura

Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura

https://fightchoice.app/events/casey-oneill-vs-eduarda-moura-prediction-2026-09-19

Women's Flyweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 29, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Casey O'Neill Eduarda Moura
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 51.9% 48.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 56.2% 43.8%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 33.3% 66.7%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 61.8% 38.2%
Ensemble 54.5% 45.5%
Predicted Winner
Casey O'Neill
54.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

78% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Casey O'Neill 29.5% 16.9% 8.1% 54.5%
Eduarda Moura 24.6% 14.1% 6.8% 45.5%
281 historical bouts 54.1% 31.0% 14.9% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
31% KO/TKO 15% Submission 6:06 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Casey O'Neill Eduarda Moura
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 14, 2009
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera
Middleweight
Michael Bisping Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
34.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.5s
Denis Kang
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
20.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
112.5s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2007
UFC 73: Stacked
Lightweight
Jorge Gurgel Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
29.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
104s
Diego Saraiva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
29.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
51.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.3s
Claudia Gadelha Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Bantamweight
Nate Maness Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
49.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
Tony Gravely
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 7, 2022
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Women's Flyweight
Melissa Gatto
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
65.7s
Tracy Cortez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
158s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2015
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
Flyweight
John Dodson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.6
Strike accuracy
47.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
Demetrious Johnson Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.6
Strike accuracy
51.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.8
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.8s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 29, 2010
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
Light Heavyweight
Quinton Jackson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.7s
Rashad Evans Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
154.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2018
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.5
Strike accuracy
60.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
237.5s
Jeremy Kennedy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
32%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2007
UFC 78: Validation
Light Heavyweight
Michael Bisping
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Rashad Evans Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
26.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
154.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 7, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira
Women's Strawweight
Yan Xiaonan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
Claudia Gadelha
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
135.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 6, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2
Lightweight
Ignacio Bahamondes Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
58.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
Christos Giagos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 22, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Middleweight
Daniel Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42.3
Strike accuracy
47.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.3
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2019
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Bantamweight
Pedro Munhoz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35
Strike accuracy
39.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Aljamain Sterling Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
58
Strike accuracy
49.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 16, 2025
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Lightweight
Edson Barboza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
59.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76.7s
Drakkar Klose Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 20, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards
Women's Bantamweight
Irene Aldana
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
28.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Raquel Pennington Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
34.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.7s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Casey O'Neill Eduarda Moura
Career Record 11-2 12-2
Height 5' 6" 5' 6"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 69" 67"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 32

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Casey O'Neill Eduarda Moura
Per Round Average
Strikes 35.6 12.6
Strike accuracy 52.2% 37.7%
Takedowns 0.4 1.1
Takedown accuracy 34.8% 33.3%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.1
Control time 67.9s 119.6s
Knockdowns 0.05 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.07
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 80.0% 81.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 20 16
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 76.7% 86.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 13.9% 6.2%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.5% 7.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 25 12.71
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.32 0.14
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.61 0.64
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.46 1.35
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.2 0.12
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 68.8% 69.2%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 43.8% 30.8%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 25.0% 38.5%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 75.0% 33.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 81.2% 62.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.6% 5.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 14.2% 32.2%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:44 13:27
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,554.2 1,516.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.194 0.080
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

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