FightChoice Intelligence Report
Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura
https://fightchoice.app/events/casey-oneill-vs-eduarda-moura-prediction-2026-09-19
Women's Flyweight
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:03 UTC
Model Breakdown
Casey O'Neill
Eduarda Moura
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight
49.0%
51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight
54.0%
46.0%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight
44.9%
55.1%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
57.8%
42.2%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight
64.7%
35.3%
Ensemble
56.2%
43.8%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Casey O'Neill's advantage in significant strikes landed and her higher Elo rating are key drivers for the prediction. Despite some models noting Eduarda Moura's strengths in control time and takedowns, the ENSEMBLE favors Casey O'Neill (56%) due to calibrated weighting of these factors.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Casey O'Neill, citing her age advantage and higher win rate, despite Eduarda Moura absorbing fewer significant strikes.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Casey O'Neill, pointing to her advantage in significant strikes landed and head strike share, despite Eduarda Moura's clinch strike share.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Casey O'Neill
56.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
81%
69%
62%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
62%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 284 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights | By submission *Based on 284 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 29.7% | 17.8% | 8.7% | 56.2% |
| Eduarda Moura | 23.1% | 13.9% | 6.8% | 43.8% |
| 284 historical bouts | 52.8% | 31.7% | 15.5% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Casey O'Neill | Eduarda Moura |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 12-2 | 12-3 |
| Height | 5' 6" | 5' 6" |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach | 69" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 29 | 32 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
284 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
53%
Reached the judges
47%
Ended early
32%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
6:20
Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
64
Rnd 2
46
Rnd 3
21
Rnd 4
0
Rnd 5
3
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Casey O'Neill | Eduarda Moura |
|---|---|---|
|
80%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera
|
Michael Bisping
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
77%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
|
Fight Performance
|
Claudia Gadelha
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
|
Alexander Volkanovski
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
|
Max Holloway
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
|
Fight Performance
|
Tracy Cortez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
|
Fight Performance
|
Aljamain Sterling
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
|
Fight Performance
|
Kelvin Gastelum
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 73: Stacked
|
Jorge Gurgel
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
|
Al Iaquinta
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
|
Fight Performance
|
Chael Sonnen
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Demetrious Johnson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
|
Tony Ferguson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
|
Drakkar Klose
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
|
Fight Performance
|
Randa Markos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
|
Donald Cerrone
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Casey O'Neill | Eduarda Moura | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 33.9 | 12 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 52.1% | 37.8% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 34.8% | 33.3% | 33.0% |
| Sub attempts | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 64.5s | 124.4s | 48.9s |
| Knockdowns | 0.05 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 81.0% | 76.5% | 45.8% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 3 | -2 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 21 | 17 | — |
| head strike share | 76.5% | 86.7% | — |
| body strike share | 13.9% | 6.1% | — |
| leg strike share | 9.6% | 7.2% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 23.9 | 11.93 | 15.2 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.3 | 0.13 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.45 | 1.32 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.2 | 0.12 | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 70.6% | 69.2% | 46.5% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 41.2% | 30.8% | 27.9% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 29.4% | 38.5% | 18.7% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 75.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 81.3% | 62.2% | — |
| clinch strike share | 4.6% | 5.0% | — |
| ground strike share | 14.2% | 32.8% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 9:55 | 11:46 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,568.5 | 1,502.1 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.195 | 0.082 | 0.069 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Decline | — |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 56.2% | 1.44 | 69.4% | -19.1% |
| Eduarda Moura | 43.8% | 2.85 | 35.1% | +24.8% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
No bet recommended at the price we recorded.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Casey O'Neill | Eduarda Moura | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -263 | 1.38 | +160 | 2.60 |
| DraftKings | -227 | 1.44 | +185 | 2.85 |
| FanDuel | -233 | 1.43 | +190 | 2.90 |
| BetMGM | -233 | 1.43 | +190 | 2.90 |
| Bovada | -233 | 1.43 | +190 | 2.90 |
| BetOnline | -213 | 1.47 | +181 | 2.81 |
Odds captured Sep 19, 2026, 6:02 PM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Casey O'Neill
Eduarda Moura
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