FightChoice Intelligence Report

Tai Tuivasa
vs
Robelis Despaigne

Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne

https://fightchoice.app/events/tai-tuivasa-vs-robelis-despaigne-prediction-2026-09-19

Heavyweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 29, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 73.6% 26.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 58.5% 41.5%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 47.1% 52.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 30.2% 69.8%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 38.6% 61.4%
Ensemble 49.0% 51.0%
Predicted Winner
Robelis Despaigne
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

40% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 143 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 143 similar fights By submission *Based on 143 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Tai Tuivasa 25.8% 16.1% 8.0% 49.9%
Robelis Despaigne 25.9% 16.1% 8.1% 50.1%
143 historical bouts 51.7% 32.2% 16.1% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

143 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 143 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 16% Submission 6:43 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 27, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Bantamweight
Josias Musasa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.3s
Colby Thicknesse Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
55.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
155s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Featherweight
William Gomis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
34.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.7s
Francis Marshall
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
11.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
86.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 19, 2015
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2
Welterweight
Hayder Hassan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
53.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Vicente Luque Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
22s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 21, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
Featherweight
Chase Hooper Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
64.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
141.3s
Felipe Colares
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
91.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 16, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Featherweight
Nate Landwehr Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
54.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
75.3s
Ludovit Klein
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
49.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2016
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Middleweight
Marvin Vettori
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.7s
Antonio Carlos Junior Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
37.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
111s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
Featherweight
Gabriel Benitez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
46
Strike accuracy
47.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
David Onama Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 5, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
Light Heavyweight
Aleksa Camur
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
Tanner Boser Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
109s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 24, 2011
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
Middleweight
Nick Ring
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
35.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62.7s
Tim Boetsch Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 3, 2007
UFC 68: The Uprising
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
43.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
247.7s
Jason Dent
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Featherweight
Artem Lobov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.6
Strike accuracy
44.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.6s
Cub Swanson Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41.8
Strike accuracy
70.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.6s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2017
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Lightweight
David Teymur Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
46.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.7s
Lando Vannata
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
53.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2011
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
Light Heavyweight
Rich Franklin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
31.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Forrest Griffin Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
32.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
71.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
116.7s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 9, 2016
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
Women's Bantamweight
Cat Zingano
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
181.3s
Julianna Pena Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
97.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 6, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
Featherweight
Alex Caceres
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.4
Strike accuracy
31.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.6s
Yair Rodriguez Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
35.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.4s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne
UFC Record 8-10 1-2
Height 6' 2" 6' 7"
Weight 264 lbs. 265 lbs.
Reach 75" 84"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 33 37

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne
Per Round Average
Strikes 14.0 9.1
Strike accuracy 48.6% 59.8%
Takedowns 0 0
Takedown accuracy 0% 0%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 31.1s 3s
Knockdowns 0.23 0.14
Knockdowns absorbed 0.17 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 44.4% 50.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 0.0% 50.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -7 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 18 4
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 59.1% 64.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.5% 6.2%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.4% 29.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 19.17 11
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.54 0.86
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.33 1.69
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.27 1.86
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 87.5% 100.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 87.5% 100.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 60.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 70.7% 81.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 24.4% 15.6%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.9% 3.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:06 10:06
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,474.1 1,482.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.081 0.037
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Market Odds

Sportsbook Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +370 4.70 -833 1.12
BetOnline +409 5.09 -526 1.19

Odds captured Aug 29, 2026, 12:01 AM

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