FightChoice Intelligence Report

Renato Moicano
vs
Brian Ortega

Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega

https://fightchoice.app/events/renato-moicano-vs-brian-ortega-prediction-2026-09-19

Lightweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 29, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Renato Moicano Brian Ortega
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 70.5% 29.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 77.3% 22.7%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 53.2% 46.8%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 67.5% 32.5%
Ensemble 70.7% 29.3%
Predicted Winner
Renato Moicano
70.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

64% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Renato Moicano 34.0% 24.1% 12.6% 70.7%
Brian Ortega 14.1% 10.0% 5.2% 29.3%
281 historical bouts 48.0% 34.2% 17.8% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

48% Reached the judges
52% Ended early
34% KO/TKO 18% Submission 6:08 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Renato Moicano Brian Ortega
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2020
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.4
Strike accuracy
50.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.2s
Max Holloway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.4
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.5s
Jared Cannonier Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 13, 2017
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Junior Dos Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 14, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Lightweight
Austin Hubbard Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
114s
Kyle Prepolec
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
36.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 27, 2016
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Middleweight
Kevin Casey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
49%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
78s
Sam Alvey Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.5
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2017
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
Dan Hooker Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
64.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 14, 2012
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva
Middleweight
Alessio Sakara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Brian Stann Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 17, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie
Featherweight
Chan Sung Jung
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.4
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Brian Ortega Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.4
Strike accuracy
59.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.4s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 13, 2014
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.8
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
5.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.4s
Junior Dos Santos Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.6
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.2s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 14, 2019
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.4
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.8s
Max Holloway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.8
Strike accuracy
44.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.4s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Lightweight
Lando Vannata
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Daniel Zellhuber Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
37.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2019
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
Welterweight
Jake Matthews Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.3s
Rostem Akman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
13.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 25, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Lightweight
Justin Gaethje Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
46.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
James Vick
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 6, 2021
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Women's Strawweight
Rose Namajunas Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.2
Strike accuracy
51.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84s
Zhang Weili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.6
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.4s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 10, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2
Featherweight
Jarno Errens
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
23.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Youssef Zalal Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
83.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
68s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Renato Moicano Brian Ortega
UFC Record 13-7 8-5-1
Height 5' 11" 5' 8"
Weight 155 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 72" 69"
Stance Orthodox Switch
Age 37 35

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Renato Moicano Brian Ortega
Per Round Average
Strikes 17.9 17.7
Strike accuracy 49.2% 37.3%
Takedowns 0.5 0.3
Takedown accuracy 40.4% 25%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.3
Control time 57.5s 23.8s
Knockdowns 0.05 0.12
Knockdowns absorbed 0.09 0.05
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 65.0% 61.5%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 20.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 20 13
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 73.0% 71.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.7% 18.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.3% 10.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 15.53 29.93
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.35 0.37
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.52 0.61
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.44 0.42
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.17 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No Yes
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 69.2% 87.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 15.4% 37.5%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 53.8% 50.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 71.4% 40.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 82.5% 88.6%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.2% 6.5%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 14.3% 4.9%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:24 14:45
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,599.3 1,564.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.254 0.154
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

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