FightChoice Intelligence Report
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez
https://fightchoice.app/events/rafael-dos-anjos-vs-alexander-hernandez-prediction-2026-10-03
Lightweight
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Oct 3, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 12, 2026, 00:04 UTC
Model Breakdown
Rafael Dos Anjos
Alexander Hernandez
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
42.6%
57.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
0.1%
99.9%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
32.4%
67.6%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
42.2%
57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
47.4%
52.6%
Ensemble
23.6%
76.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble prediction favors Alexander Hernandez. Key drivers include Alexander Hernandez's advantages in age and being past prime, alongside Rafael Dos Anjos's lower recent win rate. Despite some models favoring Rafael Dos Anjos on specific metrics like sig strike accuracy, the combined prediction leans towards Hernandez due to the aggregate of age-related and performance factors.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Alexander Hernandez, citing his advantage in age, being past prime, and a higher recent win rate against Rafael Dos Anjos.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Alexander Hernandez, highlighting his age and distance strike share, and Rafael Dos Anjos being orthodox.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Alexander Hernandez
76.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
75%
61%
53%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
53%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 172 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 172 similar fights | By submission *Based on 172 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Dos Anjos | 13.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 23.6% |
| Alexander Hernandez | 43.5% | 18.2% | 14.7% | 76.4% |
| 172 historical bouts | 57.0% | 23.8% | 19.2% | 100.0% |
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
172 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 172 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
57%
Reached the judges
43%
Ended early
24%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
5:00
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
38
Rnd 2
23
Rnd 3
10
Rnd 4
2
Rnd 5
1
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Rafael Dos Anjos | Alexander Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
|
75%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
|
Michael Johnson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev
|
Fight Performance
|
Jamie Mullarkey
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Robert Whittaker
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
|
Fight Performance
|
Ryan Spann
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
|
Fight Performance
|
Jake Matthews
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
|
Fight Performance
|
Rory MacDonald
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
|
Fight Performance
|
Al Iaquinta
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
|
Fight Performance
|
Gilbert Burns
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
|
Michael Chiesa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos
|
Demian Maia
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
|
JJ Aldrich
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
|
Fight Performance
|
Matheus Nicolau
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta
|
Fight Performance
|
Charles Oliveira
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
|
Fight Performance
|
Livinha Souza
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai
|
Fight Performance
|
Muslim Salikhov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Tale of the Tape
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Rafael Dos Anjos | Alexander Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 21-15 | 10-8 |
| Height | 5' 8" | 5' 9" |
| Weight | 170 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Age | 41 | 33 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Rafael Dos Anjos | Alexander Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 16.3 | 19.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 47.1% | 40.4% |
| Takedowns | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Takedown accuracy | 35.6% | 35.1% |
| Sub attempts | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Control time | 73.3s | 35.3s |
| Knockdowns | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 58.3% | 55.6% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -3 | -1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 36 | 18 |
| head strike share | 58.3% | 55.5% |
| body strike share | 23.8% | 31.1% |
| leg strike share | 17.8% | 13.4% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 15.11 | 20.27 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.67 | 0.37 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.55 | 0.8 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | Yes | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 42.9% | 50.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 19.0% | 50.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| distance strike share | 67.2% | 84.9% |
| clinch strike share | 17.6% | 7.7% |
| ground strike share | 15.2% | 7.4% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 14:32 | 10:22 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,571.8 | 1,545.8 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.317 | 0.189 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak |
More from UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott King Green vs Esteban Ribovics Roberto Soldic vs Khaos Williams Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden Coria Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev Marcus McGhee vs Bernardo Sopaj Anthony Wint vs Lucas Armand Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev Court McGee vs Eric NolanPut your own money-free bets on Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez
Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.
Create your free account