FightChoice Intelligence Report
Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov
https://fightchoice.app/events/ateba-gautier-vs-roman-kopylov-prediction-2026-10-03
Middleweight
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Oct 3, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 12, 2026, 00:05 UTC
Model Breakdown
Ateba Gautier
Roman Kopylov
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
49.0%
51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
67.8%
32.2%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
68.4%
31.6%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
82.5%
17.5%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
75.9%
24.1%
Ensemble
77.2%
22.8%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble prediction favors Ateba Gautier, driven by a significant age advantage and Ateba Gautier's superior win rate across multiple models. Despite some models noting Roman Kopylov's stance or striking absorption, the combined prediction leans heavily towards Ateba Gautier due to consistent positive indicators.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Ateba Gautier, citing Ateba Gautier's better win rate and both fighters being past their prime.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Ateba Gautier, noting the reach advantage and age difference, despite Roman Kopylov's orthodox stance being a slight negative.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Ateba Gautier
77.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
66%
47%
39%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
39%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 82 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 82 similar fights | By submission *Based on 82 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ateba Gautier | 38.6% | 27.3% | 11.3% | 77.2% |
| Roman Kopylov | 11.4% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 22.8% |
| 82 historical bouts | 50.0% | 35.4% | 14.6% | 100.0% |
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
82 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 82 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
50%
Reached the judges
50%
Ended early
35%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
6:02
Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
19
Rnd 2
13
Rnd 3
7
Rnd 4
0
Rnd 5
2
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Ateba Gautier | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Cesar Almeida
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
|
Kamaru Usman
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
|
Bill Algeo
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
|
Jared Cannonier
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
|
Fight Performance
|
Leonardo Santos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo
|
Charles Rosa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
|
Kamaru Usman
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
|
Kyle Nelson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
|
Fight Performance
|
Deiveson Figueiredo
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
|
Fight Performance
|
Myktybek Orolbai
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
|
Max Holloway
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
|
Uros Medic
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
|
Julia Polastri
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
|
Ailin Perez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker
|
Dan Hooker
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Tale of the Tape
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Ateba Gautier | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 11-1 | 15-5 |
| Height | 6' 4" | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach | 81" | 75" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Age | 24 | 35 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Ateba Gautier | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 13.8 | 20.9 |
| Strike accuracy | 37.5% | 50.2% |
| Takedowns | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Takedown accuracy | 100% | 50% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Control time | 0.6s | 25s |
| Knockdowns | 0.75 | 0.28 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0.03 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 91.7% | 75.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 10 | 1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 12 | 20 |
| head strike share | 75.5% | 66.0% |
| body strike share | 20.9% | 19.2% |
| leg strike share | 3.6% | 14.8% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 10.5 | 23.34 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0 | 0.16 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.15 | 0.7 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0 | 1.25 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | No |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | Yes |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | Yes | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 81.8% | 80.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 81.8% | 80.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| distance strike share | 84.5% | 91.9% |
| clinch strike share | 10.9% | 3.9% |
| ground strike share | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 5:31 | 12:16 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,571.2 | 1,536.1 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.101 | 0.270 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Decline |
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