FightChoice Intelligence Report

King Green
vs
Esteban Ribovics

King Green vs Esteban Ribovics

https://fightchoice.app/events/king-green-vs-esteban-ribovics-prediction-2026-10-03

Lightweight

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Oct 3, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 12, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
King Green Esteban Ribovics
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 45.3% 54.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 39.0% 61.0%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 33.3% 66.7%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 55.7% 44.3%
Ensemble 41.8% 58.2%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble favors Esteban Ribovics, driven by King Green's past prime status and age across multiple models. While King Green has advantages in significant strikes landed and accuracy according to Model λ, the overall calibration and weighting of models, particularly the strong lean from Model ζ, result in Esteban Ribovics being the favored fighter.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Esteban Ribovics, citing King Green's past prime status and age, along with their win rate.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors King Green, noting King Green's age advantage and lower sig strikes absorbed compared to Esteban Ribovics.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Esteban Ribovics
58.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

54% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 284 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights By submission *Based on 284 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
King Green 19.9% 14.1% 7.8% 41.8%
Esteban Ribovics 27.7% 19.7% 10.9% 58.2%
284 historical bouts 47.5% 33.8% 18.7% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

284 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

48% Reached the judges
52% Ended early
34% KO/TKO 19% Submission 5:39 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight King Green Esteban Ribovics
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40.3s
Maryna Moroz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
26.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 9, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
58.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.3s
Iasmin Lucindo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
112.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 29, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
Lightweight
Joshua Burkman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68s
Paul Felder Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 3, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Don'Tale Mayes Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
28.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 21, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till
Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
80.5s
Devin Clark
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
34.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.5s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 18, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett
Welterweight
Tim Means
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
Kevin Holland Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.5s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 22, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker
Lightweight
Paul Felder
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.6s
Dan Hooker Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.4
Strike accuracy
55.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2016
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Middleweight
Tim Kennedy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.3s
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
56.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 13, 2024
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Featherweight
Diego Lopes Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
81.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34s
Sodiq Yusuff
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 14, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch
Featherweight
Chas Skelly Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
61.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.5s
Jim Alers
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2009
UFC 100
Middleweight
Dan Henderson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
29.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Michael Bisping
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
20.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 6, 2025
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Lightweight
Edson Barboza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Jalin Turner Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39
Strike accuracy
59.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2014
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
Women's Bantamweight
Bethe Correia Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
69.3s
Jessamyn Duke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
41.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
Lightweight
Chris Duncan Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
168.5s
Jordan Vucenic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 17, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
56.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
103.7s
Nursulton Ruziboev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
51.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat King Green Esteban Ribovics
UFC Record 17-12-2 5-3
Height 5' 10" 5' 10"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 71" 69"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 40 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat King Green Esteban Ribovics
Per Round Average
Strikes 30.8 33.9
Strike accuracy 53.6% 43.8%
Takedowns 0.4 0.1
Takedown accuracy 45.8% 66.7%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.1
Control time 40.2s 9.5s
Knockdowns 0.10 0.10
Knockdowns absorbed 0.09 0.05
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 58.6% 84.2%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 4 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 29 19
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 57.8% 73.9%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 25.3% 16.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.9% 9.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 16.48 26.15
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.29 0.95
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.9 1.65
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.65 1.13
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.37 5.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 47.1% 81.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 29.4% 50.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 17.6% 31.3%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 33.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 81.3% 92.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.0% 4.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.8% 3.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:26 11:26
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,587.3 1,539.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.401 0.161
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

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