FightChoice Intelligence Report

Johnny Walker
vs
Mick Parkin

Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin

https://fightchoice.app/events/johnny-walker-vs-mick-parkin-prediction-2026-10-03

Heavyweight

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Oct 3, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 12, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Johnny Walker Mick Parkin
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 12.4% 87.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 63.4% 36.6%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 33.8% 66.2%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 24.3% 75.7%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 34.3% 65.7%
Ensemble 26.3% 73.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Mick Parkin is favored by the ensemble prediction. Key factors driving this prediction include Mick Parkin's advantages in weight, age, and win rate across multiple models. The ensemble favors Mick Parkin (74%) despite a split among individual models.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Mick Parkin due to his advantage in age, win rate, takedowns landed, and the fighters being past prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Mick Parkin, citing his superior weight, distance strike share, and overall distance strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Mick Parkin
73.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

43% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 284 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights By submission *Based on 284 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Johnny Walker 14.0% 8.6% 3.7% 26.3%
Mick Parkin 39.2% 24.1% 10.4% 73.7%
284 historical bouts 53.2% 32.7% 14.1% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

284 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

53% Reached the judges
47% Ended early
33% KO/TKO 14% Submission 6:00 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Johnny Walker Mick Parkin
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Women's Strawweight
Ariane Carnelossi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
Talita Alencar Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
62.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
123.3s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 13, 2021
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
Welterweight
Dhiego Lima
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
34%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Belal Muhammad Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
10%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 30, 2016
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Johnson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
84.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
Ryan Bader
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
—
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 26, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
Welterweight
Song Kenan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
50.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.3s
Rolando Bedoya
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.3
Strike accuracy
43.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 24, 2014
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
Bantamweight
Francisco Rivera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
Takeya Mizugaki Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
25.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
162.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 16, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Welterweight
Danny Roberts Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.7s
Ramazan Emeev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
50.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
59s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Lightweight
Mitch Ramirez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Thiago Moises Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
64.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
132s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 18, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45.3s
Marcin Tybura
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
66.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
144s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 13, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo
Middleweight
Karl Roberson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
Marvin Vettori Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45
Strike accuracy
70.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
125s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 18, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Light Heavyweight
Marcin Prachnio Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
William Knight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.7
Strike accuracy
24.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Middleweight
Jamie Pickett Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
49%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.3s
Laureano Staropoli
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
40.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
108.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2014
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
Tim Elliott
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
76.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2014
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
Lightweight
Charlie Brenneman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
61.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64s
Danny Castillo Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
76.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.5s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2017
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Middleweight
Anthony Smith Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
49%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.3s
Andrew Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
60.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
91.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Lightweight
Joel Alvarez Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.7
Strike accuracy
67.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
Elves Brener
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Johnny Walker Mick Parkin
UFC Record 8-7-1 4-1
Height 6' 6" 6' 4"
Weight 205 lbs. 265 lbs.
Reach 82" 79"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 34 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Johnny Walker Mick Parkin
Per Round Average
Strikes 14.3 23.1
Strike accuracy 52.9% 49.9%
Takedowns 0.1 0.3
Takedown accuracy 40% 36.4%
Sub attempts 0.1 0
Control time 17.7s 46.8s
Knockdowns 0.18 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.25 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 53.3% 94.4%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 15 18
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 47.3% 61.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.1% 7.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 42.6% 31.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 11.22 19.54
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.3 0.08
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.24 1.12
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.27 0.95
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 87.5% 82.4%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 70.6%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 12.5% 11.8%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 57.1% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 68.7% 91.3%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.2% 4.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 24.0% 4.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:01 12:41
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,529.8 1,546.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.105 0.150
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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