FightChoice Intelligence Report

Natalia Silva
vs
Wang Cong

Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong

https://fightchoice.app/events/natalia-silva-vs-wang-cong-prediction-2026-10-03

Women's Flyweight

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Oct 3, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 12, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Natalia Silva Wang Cong
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 56.5% 43.5%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 60.5% 39.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 63.2% 36.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 67.9% 32.1%
Ensemble 64.4% 35.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Natalia Silva's superior Elo rating and win streak are the strongest drivers for the ensemble's prediction. The ensemble favors Natalia Silva, with calibration and weighting producing this outcome despite some models favoring Wang Cong on specific factors like sig strikes landed.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Natalia Silva, citing her age, win rate, recent win rate, and sig strikes absorbed, despite Wang Cong's edge in sig strikes landed.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Natalia Silva, based on her higher Elo rating and orthodox stance, outweighing Wang Cong's southpaw advantage and distance strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Natalia Silva
64.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (25m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

55% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 284 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights By submission *Based on 284 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Natalia Silva 36.1% 18.6% 9.8% 64.4%
Wang Cong 19.9% 10.3% 5.4% 35.6%
284 historical bouts 56.0% 28.9% 15.1% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

284 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

56% Reached the judges
44% Ended early
29% KO/TKO 15% Submission 4:42 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Natalia Silva Wang Cong
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2012
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
Welterweight
Mike Pierce Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.5s
Aaron Simpson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
23s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Women's Strawweight
Loopy Godinez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.7s
Mackenzie Dern Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
35.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 27, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Lightweight
Michal Figlak
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.3s
Austin Hubbard Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 24, 2015
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson
Light Heavyweight
Phil Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
27.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.3s
Ryan Bader Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
22.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Lightweight
Jai Herbert Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Khama Worthy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
Women's Strawweight
Tabatha Ricci Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
125.5s
Amanda Ribas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2019
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
52
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Donald Cerrone
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
36.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 8, 2023
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Featherweight
Yair Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alexander Volkanovski Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
68%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
58.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144.3s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Middleweight
Bryan Battle Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
Gilbert Urbina
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.5
Strike accuracy
59.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
80s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 17, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov
Welterweight
Peter Sobotta
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
37.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.3s
Leon Edwards Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
166.7s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 26, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Bantamweight
Takeya Mizugaki Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60s
George Roop
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
42%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
117.7s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Flyweight
Luis Gurule Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
49.7
Strike accuracy
49.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
Daniel Barez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 30, 2021
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.8
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Petr Yan Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.8
Strike accuracy
55.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.8s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
61%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.5
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
88.5s
Sergey Morozov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
23.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Lightweight
Lando Vannata
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68s
Darrius Flowers Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.5s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Natalia Silva Wang Cong
Career Record 20-5-1 9-1
Height 5' 4" 5' 6"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 65" 66"
Stance Southpaw Southpaw
Age 29 34

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Natalia Silva Wang Cong
Per Round Average
Strikes 22.8 31.9
Strike accuracy 45.3% 57.9%
Takedowns 0.1 0.1
Takedown accuracy 30% 66.7%
Sub attempts 0 0.1
Control time 16.5s 19.6s
Knockdowns 0.09 0.20
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.07
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 81.8% 90.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 16 4
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 22 10
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 57.6% 47.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.3% 23.8%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.1% 29.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 11.18 13.13
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.14 0.27
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.23 0.84
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.76 1.1
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 5.000 1
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 61.1% 33.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 22.2% 22.2%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 38.9% 11.1%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 75.0% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 94.4% 90.8%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 2.6% 6.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.0% 3.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:03 11:39
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,622.2 1,561.8
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.380 0.145
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak
Market Intel

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Natalia Silva 64.4% 1.49 67.1% -4.0%
Wang Cong 35.6% 2.70 37.0% -4.0%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 3% of bankroll on Natalia Silva at 1.49 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Natalia Silva Wang Cong
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -238 1.42 +148 2.48
DraftKings -204 1.49 +170 2.70
FanDuel -200 1.50 +160 2.60
BetOnline -208 1.48 +177 2.77

Odds captured Sep 24, 2026, 12:02 AM

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