FightChoice Intelligence Report

Damian Pinas
vs
Andrey Pulyaev

Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev

https://fightchoice.app/events/damian-pinas-vs-andrey-pulyaev-prediction-2026-10-03

Middleweight

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Oct 3, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 12, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Damian Pinas Andrey Pulyaev
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 60.0% 40.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 76.7% 23.3%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 68.0% 32.0%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 69.8% 30.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 66.4% 33.6%
Ensemble 76.9% 23.1%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Damian Pinas's win streak and recent win rate are the strongest drivers favoring him. The ensemble prediction favors Damian Pinas (77%), a result achieved through calibration and weighting, as individual models showed a split but leaned towards Damian Pinas.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Damian Pinas, citing his higher win rate against Andrey Pulyaev and his better win rate overall, despite Andrey Pulyaev's higher Elo rating.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Damian Pinas, highlighting his orthodox stance and ground strike share, along with Damian Pinas's age advantage over Andrey Pulyaev.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Damian Pinas
76.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

37% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

21 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Damian Pinas Andrey Pulyaev
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 30, 2014
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
Middleweight
Lorenz Larkin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Derek Brunson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
214s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2007
UFC 70: Nations Collide
Heavyweight
Cheick Kongo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
56.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.3s
Assuerio Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
54.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
143.7s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 27, 2016
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Middleweight
Alessio Di Chirico Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
44.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62s
Garreth McLellan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
74.3s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Middleweight
Khamzat Chimaev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Gerald Meerschaert
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 2, 2008
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon
Lightweight
Jeff Cox
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
Manvel Gamburyan Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 10, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
Lightweight
Scott Holtzman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
20.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mateusz Gamrot Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
61.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 2, 2013
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
Flyweight
Ian McCall
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
35.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
Joseph Benavidez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
31%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 2, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Women's Flyweight
Casey O'Neill Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
47.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
169.5s
Antonina Shevchenko
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
63.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 26, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Welterweight
Li Jingliang
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.7s
Keita Nakamura Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
86.7s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2
Lightweight
Ross Pearson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
41.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
Stevie Ray Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63.7s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2019
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Women's Bantamweight
Amanda Nunes Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Holly Holm
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
78.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 22, 2007
UFC 76: Knockout
Welterweight
Jon Fitch Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
193s
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.7s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 7, 2008
UFC 85: Bedlam
Light Heavyweight
Jason Lambert
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
Luiz Cane Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
53.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 23, 2009
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida
Middleweight
Chael Sonnen Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
59%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
277s
Dan Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2014
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale
Flyweight
Dustin Ortiz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
60.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
147.7s
Justin Scoggins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
64.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
62.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
93.7s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Damian Pinas Andrey Pulyaev
Career Record 10-1 10-5
Height 6' 1" 6' 4"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 79" 78"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 24 29

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Damian Pinas Andrey Pulyaev
Per Round Average
Strikes 20 11.3
Strike accuracy 71.4% 47.4%
Takedowns 0 0
Takedown accuracy 0% 0%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 26s 12.3s
Knockdowns 1.50 0.11
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.22
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 50.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 5 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 8
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 52.5% 55.9%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.5% 35.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 30.0% 8.8%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 20 13.11
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.5 0.67
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.49
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.18
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 75.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 75.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 80.0% 83.3%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 2.5% 14.7%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 17.5% 2.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 3:37 10:07
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,531.9 1,473.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.041 0.096
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

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