FightChoice Intelligence Report

Marvin Vettori
vs
Ismail Naurdiev

Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev

https://fightchoice.app/events/marvin-vettori-vs-ismail-naurdiev-prediction-2026-10-03

Middleweight

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Oct 3, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 12, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Marvin Vettori Ismail Naurdiev
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 34.2% 65.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 56.7% 43.3%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 38.3% 61.7%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 17.5% 82.5%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 40.4% 59.6%
Ensemble 31.3% 68.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Ismail Naurdiev is favored by the ensemble prediction, driven by strong indicators across multiple models, particularly Marvin Vettori's higher absorbed significant strikes and age disadvantage. While most individual models align with this, the final ensemble prediction is a calibrated result.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Ismail Naurdiev, citing his advantages in age, absorbed significant strikes, being past prime, and win rate.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Ismail Naurdiev, pointing to his advantage in absorbed significant strikes and Ismail Naurdiev's orthodox stance.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Ismail Naurdiev
68.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

68% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 284 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights By submission *Based on 284 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Marvin Vettori 17.8% 9.0% 4.5% 31.3%
Ismail Naurdiev 38.9% 19.8% 9.9% 68.7%
284 historical bouts 56.7% 28.9% 14.4% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

284 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

57% Reached the judges
43% Ended early
29% KO/TKO 14% Submission 6:06 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Marvin Vettori Ismail Naurdiev
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 26, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Lightweight
Naoyuki Kotani
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
38.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54s
Kajan Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 18, 2008
UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben
Middleweight
Chris Leben
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
31.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
Michael Bisping Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2011
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
Light Heavyweight
Lyoto Machida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
34.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jon Jones Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
45.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 24, 2020
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
30.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Magomed Ankalaev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
51.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 15, 2008
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar
Lightweight
Alvin Robinson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.7
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.3s
Mark Bocek Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
233.3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2012
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Bantamweight
Alex Caceres
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
61.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
120.7s
Edwin Figueroa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
50.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 12, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Flyweight
Tim Elliott
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
68.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Deiveson Figueiredo Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Light Heavyweight
Kennedy Nzechukwu Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
40.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Darko Stosic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Lightweight
Michael Chiesa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
107.7s
Mitch Clarke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
54.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 13, 2014
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
Welterweight
Joe Riggs
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
Ben Saunders Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 12, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Featherweight
Alex Caceres
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Sodiq Yusuff Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 17, 2006
UFC Fight Night 6
Middleweight
Chris Leben Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m35s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67.5s
Jorge Santiago
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2025
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Middleweight
Reinier de Ridder Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
205s
Kevin Holland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
84.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Magomed Ankalaev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 1, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
Welterweight
Dong Hyun Kim Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.3s
John Hathaway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
27.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
74.7s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Marvin Vettori Ismail Naurdiev
UFC Record 9-8-1 4-3
Height 6' 0" 5' 10"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 74" 74"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 33 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Marvin Vettori Ismail Naurdiev
Per Round Average
Strikes 23.6 17.6
Strike accuracy 45.9% 52.8%
Takedowns 0.5 0.5
Takedown accuracy 43.9% 40.9%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.1
Control time 55.2s 55.3s
Knockdowns 0.02 0.05
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 52.9% 75.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 20.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -4 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 17 33
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 77.8% 54.6%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.9% 26.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 12.3% 19.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 22.97 8.42
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.29 0.58
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.71 0.61
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.69 0.58
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.8 1.5
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 22.2% 76.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 52.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 22.2% 24.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 87.4% 79.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.6% 10.7%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.0% 9.9%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 17:17 13:04
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,527.6 1,523.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.157 0.179
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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