FightChoice Intelligence Report

Court McGee
vs
Eric Nolan

Court McGee vs Eric Nolan

https://fightchoice.app/events/court-mcgee-vs-eric-nolan-prediction-2026-10-03

Welterweight

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Oct 3, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 12, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Court McGee Eric Nolan
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 28.9% 71.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 47.6% 52.4%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 44.9% 55.1%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 30.2% 69.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 46.5% 53.5%
Ensemble 34.2% 65.8%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Eric Nolan, driven by significant age advantages and past prime indicators for Nolan across multiple models. Court McGee's Elo rating and ground strike share were insufficient to sway the combined prediction, which ultimately favored Eric Nolan.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Eric Nolan, citing his advantage in age, past prime status, and fewer knockdowns absorbed compared to Court McGee.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Eric Nolan, based on Court McGee's age and the age gap, though Court McGee has a higher ground and head strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Eric Nolan
65.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 1m15s (1m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

46% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

1 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Court McGee Eric Nolan
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 2, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
Heavyweight
Mark Hunt Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
57.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
79s
Stefan Struve
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
35.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 26, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
Heavyweight
Parker Porter
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
22.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
Junior Tafa Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
51% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 5, 2016
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Welterweight
Nordine Taleb Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s
Erick Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
34.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
51% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 9, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Women's Bantamweight
Yana Santos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Marion Reneau
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
40.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
50% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 19, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
Bantamweight
Guido Cannetti Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
47.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
118.3s
Diego Rivas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.3s
50% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 23, 2016
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Featherweight
Jim Alers
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67.3s
Jason Knight Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
33.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 9, 2018
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
Lightweight
Clay Guida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
36%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Charles Oliveira Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m18s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2011
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
Light Heavyweight
Vladimir Matyushenko
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alexander Gustafsson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
48% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Bantamweight
Aleksandre Topuria Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
58%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.7s
Bekzat Almakhan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
32.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 22, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
Bantamweight
Frankie Saenz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
139.7s
Iuri Alcantara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
52.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.7s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2007
UFC 73: Stacked
Lightweight
Sean Sherk Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3.2
Takedown accuracy
84.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.4
Control time (Per Rnd)
267.6s
Hermes Franca
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.2
Strike accuracy
26.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.6
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.2s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2022
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Lightweight
Jared Gordon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
129.3s
Paddy Pimblett Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.7s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 8, 2011
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
Middleweight
Aaron Simpson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.3s
Eric Schafer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.7
Strike accuracy
13.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 27, 2021
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
92.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Francis Ngannou Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
64.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2012
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
Middleweight
Jorge Rivera Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
Eric Schafer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
138s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Court McGee Eric Nolan
UFC Record 11-13 0-2
Height 5' 11" 6' 2"
Weight 170 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 75" 74"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 41 29

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Court McGee Eric Nolan
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.7 7.4
Strike accuracy 36.9% 34.6%
Takedowns 0.6 0
Takedown accuracy 24.8% 0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0
Control time 68.4s 4s
Knockdowns 0.05 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0.11 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 45.8% 72.2%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 20.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 24 18
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 51.9% 83.8%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 22.8% 16.2%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 25.3% 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.59 11.4
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.22 3.8
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.9 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.86 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.25 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 27.3% 69.2%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 30.8%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 27.3% 38.5%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 23.1% 40.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 84.9% 89.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.1% 10.8%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.0% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 12:38 11:01
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,474.8 1,468.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.144 0.089
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

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