FightChoice Intelligence Report

Imanol Rodriguez
vs
Alden Coria

Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden Coria

https://fightchoice.app/events/imanol-rodriguez-vs-alden-coria-prediction-2026-10-03

Flyweight

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Oct 3, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 12, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Imanol Rodriguez Alden Coria
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 40.2% 59.8%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 30.2% 69.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 39.5% 60.5%
Ensemble 37.5% 62.5%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Alden Coria's reach advantage and Imanol Rodriguez's higher knockdown absorption are key drivers favoring Alden Coria. The ensemble prediction favors Alden Coria (62%), despite some individual models noting Imanol Rodriguez's advantages in reach and height.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Alden Coria, citing Alden Coria's reach advantage and Imanol Rodriguez's higher strike absorption.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Alden Coria, highlighting Alden Coria's greater distance striking and Imanol Rodriguez's reach disadvantage.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Alden Coria
62.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

55% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 284 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights By submission *Based on 284 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Imanol Rodriguez 19.7% 12.7% 5.2% 37.5%
Alden Coria 32.8% 21.1% 8.6% 62.5%
284 historical bouts 52.5% 33.8% 13.7% 100.0%
Share This Intel Report Export as Image
Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

284 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
34% KO/TKO 14% Submission 5:34 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Imanol Rodriguez Alden Coria
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Lightweight
Matt Frevola
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
28.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Arman Tsarukyan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
48.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3.3
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
168s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Women's Strawweight
Denise Gomes Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
58.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
116.5s
Bruna Brasil
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
68.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
39.5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2021
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Lightweight
Luigi Vendramini
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
35.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63s
Fares Ziam Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
32.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 26, 2011
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
Light Heavyweight
James Te Huna
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
174s
Alexander Gustafsson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
58s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 18, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman
Women's Flyweight
Molly McCann Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.7
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
35.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
Diana Belbita
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie
Women's Strawweight
Bec Rawlings
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
24.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.7s
Tecia Pennington Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
83.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 30, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
Featherweight
Andre Fili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Joanderson Brito Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
70%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 21, 2010
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
Light Heavyweight
Eric Schafer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
Jason Brilz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
144.3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 3, 2018
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
Women's Flyweight
Roxanne Modafferi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
23.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.7s
Sijara Eubanks Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
32.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
119s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 19, 2013
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
Featherweight
Godofredo Pepey Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84s
Milton Vieira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
120s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Lightweight
Mitch Ramirez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Thiago Moises Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
64.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
132s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 17, 2011
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Lightweight
Evan Dunham Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
26.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
Shamar Bailey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
17%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
Lightweight
Jai Herbert
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
36.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84s
Fares Ziam Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
54%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
Lightweight
Matt Frevola
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
27.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.7s
Fares Ziam Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
61.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
94.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Penne
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.7s
Danielle Taylor Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

Export as Image

Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Imanol Rodriguez Alden Coria
Career Record 7-0 13-3
Height — 5' 8"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach — 67"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 26 28

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Imanol Rodriguez Alden Coria
Per Round Average
Strikes 23 18.3
Strike accuracy 54.8% 41.6%
Takedowns 0.5 0.7
Takedown accuracy 33.3% 54.5%
Sub attempts 0 0.4
Control time 106.5s 48.6s
Knockdowns 0.50 0
Knockdowns absorbed 1 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 60.0% 88.9%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 5
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 5 9
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 76.1% 73.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 15.2% 14.5%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.7% 12.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 11 10
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.78
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.02
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.13
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 5.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 50.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 37.5%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 12.5%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 65.2% 85.5%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.3% 4.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 30.4% 10.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:21 13:36
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,514.7 1,542.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.076 0.081
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

More from UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott King Green vs Esteban Ribovics Roberto Soldic vs Khaos Williams Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev Marcus McGhee vs Bernardo Sopaj Anthony Wint vs Lucas Armand Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev Court McGee vs Eric Nolan

Put your own money-free bets on Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden Coria

Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.

Create your free account