FightChoice Intelligence Report

Oumar Sy
vs
Modestas Bukauskas

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas

https://fightchoice.app/events/oumar-sy-vs-modestas-bukauskas-prediction-2026-09-05

Light Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Oumar Sy Modestas Bukauskas
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 43.3% 56.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 59.8% 40.2%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 58.1% 41.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 75.7% 24.3%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 67.9% 32.1%
Ensemble 66.2% 33.8%
Predicted Winner
Oumar Sy
66.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

45% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 97 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 97 similar fights By submission *Based on 97 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Oumar Sy 26.6% 27.3% 12.3% 66.2%
Modestas Bukauskas 13.6% 13.9% 6.3% 33.8%
97 historical bouts 40.2% 41.2% 18.6% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

97 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 97 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

40% Reached the judges
60% Ended early
41% KO/TKO 19% Submission 6:25 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Oumar Sy Modestas Bukauskas
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2017
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
Dan Hooker Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
64.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 2, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Light Heavyweight
Rodolfo Bellato Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.5s
Ihor Potieria
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.5
Strike accuracy
57.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.5s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Featherweight
Yair Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
Brian Ortega Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
107s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 24, 2026
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Bantamweight
Song Yadong
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
Sean O'Malley Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.5s
Jared Cannonier Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Light Heavyweight
Darren Stewart
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s
Dustin Jacoby Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m04s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37
Strike accuracy
60.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2015
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Featherweight
Jeremy Stephens
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s
Max Holloway Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
57.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.7s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Featherweight
Yair Rodriguez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Brian Ortega
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
62.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 7, 2020
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
Bantamweight
Jose Quinonez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Sean O'Malley Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
81.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 11, 2026
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Light Heavyweight
Johnny Walker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
52.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
Dominick Reyes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
46.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 3, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Flyweight
Tim Elliott Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
49.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
85.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
224.3s
Victor Altamirano
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.3s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 5, 2022
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Featherweight
Umar Nurmagomedov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
69.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
87s
Brian Kelleher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
5.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 9, 2022
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
Bantamweight
Aljamain Sterling Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.4
Strike accuracy
56.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
9.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
102.2s
Petr Yan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.6
Strike accuracy
61.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
70.4s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 17, 2024
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
49.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
99.7s
Dan Hooker Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.3s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Women's Flyweight
Mara Romero Borella
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
120s
Mayra Bueno Silva Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Oumar Sy Modestas Bukauskas
Career Record 12-2 20-7
Height 6' 4" 6' 3"
Weight 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach 83" 76"
Stance Orthodox Switch
Age 30 32

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Oumar Sy Modestas Bukauskas
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.2 14.2
Strike accuracy 48.3% 43%
Takedowns 0.8 0.1
Takedown accuracy 35% 66.7%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.0
Control time 96.8s 29.7s
Knockdowns 0 0.03
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.17
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 84.6% 71.4%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 13 28
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 51.4% 72.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.2% 17.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 29.5% 10.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 8.89 17.71
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.11 0.18
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.61 0.65
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.59 0.8
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.2 5.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No Yes
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 72.7% 70.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 36.4% 50.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 36.4% 20.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 75.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 82.9% 85.8%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.2% 9.4%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.9% 4.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:34 10:44
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,513.7 1,535.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.072 0.129
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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