FightChoice Intelligence Report

Nathaniel Wood
vs
Mairon Santos

Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon Santos

https://fightchoice.app/events/nathaniel-wood-vs-mairon-santos-prediction-2026-09-05

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 15, 2026, 00:02 UTC

Model Breakdown
Nathaniel Wood Mairon Santos
Deep Learning Model α 16% weight 51.8% 48.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 59.3% 40.7%
Statistical Model δ 19% weight 38.5% 61.5%
Statistical Model β 22% weight 29.5% 70.5%
Statistical Model ε 20% weight 42.9% 57.1%
Ensemble 41.5% 58.5%
Predicted Winner
Mairon Santos
58.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
78% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Share This Intel Report Export as Image

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Nathaniel Wood Mairon Santos
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 12, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Welterweight
Max Griffin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
33.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Chris Curtis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
41.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
Welterweight
Max Griffin Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
60.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28s
Song Kenan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov
Women's Strawweight
Molly McCann Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
68s
Diana Belbita
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
37.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 31, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
Middleweight
Sean Strickland Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.3
Strike accuracy
46.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jack Marshman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
19%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2018
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
73.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.2
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
180.4s
Francis Ngannou
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.2
Strike accuracy
18.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.4s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 27, 2013
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Lightweight
Mac Danzig
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.5s
Melvin Guillard Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 7, 2021
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
Women's Strawweight
Tecia Pennington Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
48
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
Angela Hill
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
51.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2021
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Heavyweight
Jake Collier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43.3
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Carlos Felipe Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
49%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov
Middleweight
Roman Dolidze
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.8
Strike accuracy
22.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
122.2s
Nassourdine Imavov Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.4
Strike accuracy
59.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.4s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 3, 2011
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
Middleweight
CB Dollaway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Mark Munoz Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 23, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas
Middleweight
AJ Dobson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
32.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
Edmen Shahbazyan Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
62.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos
Welterweight
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.4
Strike accuracy
59.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94.6s
Robbie Lawler
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.2
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.8s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith
Welterweight
Court McGee Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
58%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
132s
Alex Garcia
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov
Lightweight
Mike Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
79.7s
Fares Ziam Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
143.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 21, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Featherweight
Andre Fili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
129s
Godofredo Pepey Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s

Export as Image

Tale of the Tape

Stat Nathaniel Wood Mairon Santos
UFC Record 11-3 4-0
Height 5' 6" 5' 7"
Weight 145 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 69" 72"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 33 26

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Nathaniel Wood Mairon Santos
Per Round Average
Strikes 26.7 14.2
Strike accuracy 51.1% 48.1%
Takedowns 0.4 0
Takedown accuracy 48.6% 0%
Sub attempts 0.2 0
Control time 42.3s 15.3s
Knockdowns 0.13 0.18
Knockdowns absorbed 0.08 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 78.6% 100.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 4 8
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 14 8
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 55.1% 49.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.5% 26.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 34.4% 24.4%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 20.15 9.55
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.3 0.36
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.94 0.75
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.64 0.43
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.5 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 27.3% 37.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 37.5%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 27.3% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 86.9% 88.5%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.4% 9.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.7% 2.6%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:32 11:43
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,606.9 1,564.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.157 0.122
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

More from UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek Matthieu Letho Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias

Put your own money-free bets on Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon Santos

Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.

Create your free account