FightChoice Intelligence Report

Morgan Charriere
vs
Felipe Lima

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima

https://fightchoice.app/events/morgan-charriere-vs-felipe-lima-prediction-2026-09-05

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 15, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Morgan Charriere Felipe Lima
Deep Learning Model α 16% weight 46.9% 53.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 54.5% 45.5%
Statistical Model δ 19% weight 46.1% 53.9%
Statistical Model β 22% weight 29.5% 70.5%
Statistical Model ε 20% weight 39.5% 60.5%
Ensemble 39.8% 60.2%
Predicted Winner
Felipe Lima
60.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
67% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Morgan Charriere Felipe Lima
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
Featherweight
Jeremy Stephens Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m35s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.5s
Josh Emmett
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.5s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Lightweight
Conor McGregor
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.5s
Dustin Poirier Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m32s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
52.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 7, 2024
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Featherweight
Dooho Choi Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
67.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144.3s
Nate Landwehr
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
37.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 14, 2026
UFC Freedom 250
Heavyweight
Alex Pereira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ciryl Gane Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
62.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 10, 2021
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Lightweight
Conor McGregor
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
71.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dustin Poirier Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
198s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 9, 2017
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
Featherweight
Jeremy Stephens Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Gilbert Melendez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
22.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 26, 2024
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Middleweight
Bruno Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
37.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ismail Naurdiev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
56.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
23.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
117s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 9, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
Featherweight
Jeremy Stephens Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Rony Jason
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 28, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
Featherweight
Jeremy Stephens
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
28.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38.6s
Cub Swanson Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.4
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.8s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 4, 2017
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
44.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Jorge Masvidal
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
29.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 19, 2013
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
Lightweight
Thiago Tavares
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Khabib Nurmagomedov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
71%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 28, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt
Middleweight
Nate Marquardt Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
63%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
194s
James Te Huna
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
39s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
Lightweight
Chad Laprise
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Ross Pearson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
33.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 28, 2017
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Welterweight
Donald Cerrone
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jorge Masvidal Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
56.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2016
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Middleweight
Brad Tavares Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
Caio Magalhaes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
32.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.7s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Morgan Charriere Felipe Lima
Career Record 21-12-1 14-2
Height 5' 8" 5' 6"
Weight 145 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 69" 68"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 30 28

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Morgan Charriere Felipe Lima
Per Round Average
Strikes 15.8 13.1
Strike accuracy 50% 45%
Takedowns 0.5 0.7
Takedown accuracy 46.7% 27.3%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.2
Control time 48s 49.3s
Knockdowns 0.23 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0.15 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 61.3% 85.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 31 7
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 60.0% 59.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.9% 22.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.1% 17.8%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.69 13.33
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.15 0.11
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.37 0.45
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.65 1
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.25 3
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 73.7% 33.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 63.2% 16.7%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 10.5% 16.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 16.7% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.3% 88.1%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.9% 10.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.9% 1.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:30 13:45
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,505.4 1,519.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.118 0.055
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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