FightChoice Intelligence Report

Dan Hooker
vs
Salahdine Parnasse

Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse

https://fightchoice.app/events/dan-hooker-vs-salahdine-parnasse-prediction-2026-09-05

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 30, 2026, 17:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 57.3% 42.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 77.0% 23.0%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 64.1% 35.9%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Dan Hooker's reach advantage and significant strikes landed are key drivers favoring him. Despite some models noting Salahdine Parnasse's age and reach, the ensemble ultimately favors Dan Hooker (59%) due to calibrated weighting of these factors.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Dan Hooker, citing his reach advantage over Salahdine Parnasse and Dan Hooker's own reach.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Dan Hooker, pointing to his reach advantage and orthodox stance over Salahdine Parnasse.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Dan Hooker
64.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

29% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
UFC Record 14-11 1-0
Height 6' 0" —
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 75" —
Stance Switch —
Age 36 28

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.2 12
Strike accuracy 48.6% 70.6%
Takedowns 0.2 0
Takedown accuracy 33.3% 0%
Sub attempts 0.2 0
Control time 45.7s 2s
Knockdowns 0.16 1
Knockdowns absorbed 0.05 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 56.0% 92.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -3 6
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 25 25
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 61.5% 58.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.2% 16.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.3% 25.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 21.66 14
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.43 0
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.45 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.51 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 5 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 64.3% 73.9%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 47.8%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 14.3% 26.1%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 63.6% 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 84.6% 75.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.4% 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.0% 25.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:50 2:35
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,551.4 1,519.2
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.246 0.430
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak
Market IntelClick here to expand

Betting Edge

Recommended stake 26% of bankroll on Dan Hooker at 4.10 (proline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +360 4.60 -769 1.13

Odds captured Sep 5, 2026, 6:02 PM

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