FightChoice Intelligence Report

Losene Keita
vs
Muhammad Naimov

Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov

https://fightchoice.app/events/losene-keita-vs-muhammad-naimov-prediction-2026-09-05

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 30, 2026, 17:53 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

  • Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC · Muhammad Naimov
  • Aug 15, 2026, 06:03 UTC · Muhammad Naimov
Model Breakdown
Losene Keita Muhammad Naimov
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 58.6% 41.4%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 54.6% 45.4%
Ensemble 53.8% 46.2%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Muhammad Naimov is favored by the ENSEMBLE prediction. Key factors driving this include Muhammad Naimov's advantage in sig strikes absorbed and his higher Elo rating. Despite some models noting Losene Keita's youth or strike accuracy, the calibrated combination of models ultimately favors Muhammad Naimov.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Muhammad Naimov, citing his higher Elo rating and better sig strikes absorbed, despite Losene Keita being younger.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Muhammad Naimov, highlighting his better sig strikes absorbed and higher Elo rating, despite Losene Keita's advantage in distance strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Losene Keita
53.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

62% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Losene Keita 28.9% 16.9% 8.0% 53.8%
Muhammad Naimov 24.8% 14.5% 6.9% 46.2%
281 historical bouts 53.7% 31.3% 14.9% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Losene Keita Muhammad Naimov
Career Record 17-2 13-5
Height 5' 8" 5' 9"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 72" 70"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 32

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
31% KO/TKO 15% Submission 4:27 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Losene Keita Muhammad Naimov
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Middleweight
Andrew Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
34%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
Makhmud Muradov Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
45.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Heavyweight
Waldo Cortes Acosta Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Shamil Gaziev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 28, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Women's Flyweight
Katlyn Cerminara Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
30.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alexis Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2014
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
Tim Elliott
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
76.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2014
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
Lightweight
Danny Castillo Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
76.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.5s
Charlie Brenneman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
61.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 7, 2022
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Women's Flyweight
Tracy Cortez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
158s
Melissa Gatto
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
65.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 2, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Women's Strawweight
Ketlen Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
54.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.7s
Piera Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
70%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
92s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 18, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett
Lightweight
Damir Ismagulov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.3s
Guram Kutateladze
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 7, 2009
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine
Middleweight
Jason Day
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
24%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kendall Grove Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m32s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 23, 2016
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Featherweight
Godofredo Pepey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.7s
Darren Elkins Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
235.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 2, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
Lightweight
Takanori Gomi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Diego Sanchez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 18, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Light Heavyweight
Marcin Prachnio Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
William Knight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.7
Strike accuracy
24.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 9, 2020
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Heavyweight
Fabricio Werdum
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
63.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
78.3s
Aleksei Oleinik Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
51.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 9, 2023
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Light Heavyweight
Carlos Ulberg Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.7s
Da Woon Jung
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 2, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
Women's Flyweight
Manon Fiorot Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
25.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Rose Namajunas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.3s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Losene Keita Muhammad Naimov
Per Round Average
Strikes 17.5 9.4
Strike accuracy 47% 39.3%
Takedowns 0 0.5
Takedown accuracy 0% 34.6%
Sub attempts 0 0.1
Control time 5s 63.5s
Knockdowns 0.50 0.05
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.16
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 75.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 24
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 74.3% 59.2%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.4% 22.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 4.3% 18.4%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.75 12.26
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.47
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.43
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.61
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.5
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 61.1%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 44.4%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 16.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 88.6% 70.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 16.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 11.4% 13.4%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:57 9:47
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,506.8 1,524.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.054 0.211
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline
Market IntelClick here to expand

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Losene Keita 53.8% 1.26 79.4% -32.2%
Muhammad Naimov 46.2% 4.00 25.0% +84.7%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Losene Keita Muhammad Naimov
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -526 1.19 +275 3.75
DraftKings -385 1.26 +300 4.00
FanDuel -385 1.26 +310 4.10
Bovada -385 1.26 +310 4.10
BetOnline -357 1.28 +287 3.87

Odds captured Sep 5, 2026, 6:02 PM

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