FightChoice Intelligence Report

Losene Keita
vs
Muhammad Naimov

Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov

https://fightchoice.app/events/losene-keita-vs-muhammad-naimov-prediction-2026-09-05

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 15, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Losene Keita Muhammad Naimov
Deep Learning Model α 16% weight 46.6% 53.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Statistical Model δ 19% weight 56.5% 43.5%
Statistical Model β 22% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 20% weight 40.5% 59.5%
Ensemble 48.0% 52.0%
Predicted Winner
Muhammad Naimov
52.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
62% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Losene Keita Muhammad Naimov
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 23, 2013
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
Welterweight
Court McGee Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
55.3
Strike accuracy
49.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
95.7s
Josh Neer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 9, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Welterweight
Jared Gooden
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
51.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
Randy Brown Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38.3
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 16, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy
Welterweight
KJ Noons Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Sam Stout
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 2, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Dustin Stoltzfus Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
65%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
234s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos
Lightweight
John Makdessi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Abel Trujillo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
31.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 13, 2024
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Light Heavyweight
Jiri Prochazka Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.5
Strike accuracy
58.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
Aleksandar Rakic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
53.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Aleksandar Rakic Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
77.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
244.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 19, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Women's Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
60.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
90s
Tamires Vidal
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
60.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Da Woon Jung
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
35.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 5, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
Bantamweight
Benito Lopez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
68%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mario Bautista Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44
Strike accuracy
65.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
3
Control time (Per Rnd)
156s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 2, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
Welterweight
Rhys McKee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Ange Loosa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
122.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 12, 2022
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2
Bantamweight
Douglas Silva de Andrade Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.5
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.5s
Sergey Morozov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
49.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Middleweight
Michel Pereira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Abus Magomedov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
58.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 16, 2025
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Lightweight
Edson Barboza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
59.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76.7s
Drakkar Klose Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 6, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
Light Heavyweight
Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Oumar Sy Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
39.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
208s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Losene Keita Muhammad Naimov
Career Record 16-2 13-4
Height 5' 8" 5' 9"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 72" 70"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 32

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Losene Keita Muhammad Naimov
Per Round Average
Strikes 17.3 9.7
Strike accuracy 43.7% 40.5%
Takedowns 0 0.5
Takedown accuracy 0% 34.6%
Sub attempts 0 0.1
Control time 0s 67.1s
Knockdowns 0 0.06
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.06
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 75.0% 78.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 75.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 4 23
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 69.2% 59.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 25.0% 21.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 5.8% 18.9%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 22.33 11.94
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.5
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.45
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.75
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.5
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 61.1%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 44.4%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 16.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 40.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 100.0% 69.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 16.6%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 13.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 10:46
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,488.3 1,542.9
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.016 0.173
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

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