FightChoice Intelligence Report

Michael Page
vs
Nursulton Ruziboev

Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev

https://fightchoice.app/events/michael-page-vs-nursulton-ruziboev-prediction-2026-09-05

Middleweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 15, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Michael Page Nursulton Ruziboev
Deep Learning Model α 16% weight 43.7% 56.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 46.2% 53.8%
Statistical Model δ 19% weight 40.1% 59.9%
Statistical Model β 22% weight 45.7% 54.3%
Statistical Model ε 20% weight 32.5% 67.5%
Ensemble 37.8% 62.2%
Predicted Winner
Nursulton Ruziboev
62.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
28% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Michael Page Nursulton Ruziboev
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 21, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Welterweight
Michael Page Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
49.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.7s
Sam Patterson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
18.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Middleweight
Dwight Grant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dustin Stoltzfus Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 6, 2021
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Light Heavyweight
Israel Adesanya
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.6
Strike accuracy
48.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.2s
Jan Blachowicz Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.4
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.2s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Featherweight
Jose Delgado Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Andre Fili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 17, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz
Heavyweight
Matt Mitrione
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Travis Browne Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 29, 2024
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Welterweight
Michael Page
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
55.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.3s
Ian Machado Garry Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
149.7s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Bantamweight
Da'Mon Blackshear Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
106s
Cody Gibson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.5
Strike accuracy
63.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
81s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos
Welterweight
Galore Bofando
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chad Laprise Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
142s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 29, 2007
UFC 79: Nemesis
Welterweight
Matt Hughes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.5
Strike accuracy
38.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.5s
Georges St-Pierre Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
70%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
210.5s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 30, 2022
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Welterweight
Matthew Semelsberger
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
32.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.7s
Alex Morono Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.3
Strike accuracy
54.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
Heavyweight
Matt Mitrione Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Derrick Lewis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 2, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Middleweight
Tresean Gore
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
36%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Rodolfo Vieira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
7.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64.7s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 17, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Middleweight
Jared Cannonier Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.2
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Sean Strickland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.4
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.6s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 18, 2025
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Bantamweight
Charles Jourdain Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
58.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
Davey Grant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
34.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Featherweight
Jonathan Pearce Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.7
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71s
Darren Elkins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
29.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Michael Page Nursulton Ruziboev
Career Record 25-3 37-9-2
Height 6' 3" 6' 5"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 79" 76"
Stance Switch Orthodox
Age 39 32

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Michael Page Nursulton Ruziboev
Per Round Average
Strikes 10.7 9.6
Strike accuracy 56.5% 46.5%
Takedowns 0 0.4
Takedown accuracy 0% 80%
Sub attempts 0 0.1
Control time 18.3s 38.5s
Knockdowns 0 0.27
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.09
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 88.5% 80.9%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 26 47
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 63.4% 68.6%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.7% 25.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.9% 5.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 7.87 10.73
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.4 0.55
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.12 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.64 3.39
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.9% 92.1%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 43.5% 36.8%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 17.4% 55.3%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 22.2%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 92.5% 71.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.6% 7.6%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 1.9% 21.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 7:21
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,560.5 1,560.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.375 0.248
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

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