FightChoice Intelligence Report

Oumar Sy
vs
Modestas Bukauskas

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas

https://fightchoice.app/events/oumar-sy-vs-modestas-bukauskas-prediction-2026-09-05

Light Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 15, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Oumar Sy Modestas Bukauskas
Deep Learning Model α 16% weight 43.2% 56.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 59.8% 40.2%
Statistical Model δ 19% weight 44.3% 55.7%
Statistical Model β 22% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 20% weight 51.6% 48.4%
Ensemble 51.0% 49.0%
Predicted Winner
Oumar Sy
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
39% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Oumar Sy Modestas Bukauskas
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Featherweight
Chris Gutierrez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
54.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
John Castaneda
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
53.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
96.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 8, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Featherweight
Jamall Emmers Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
87.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
171.7s
Hyder Amil
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
37.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 8, 2025
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
Featherweight
Gabriel Santos Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m06s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
63.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
126.3s
Jack Jenkins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
70.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov
Bantamweight
Daniel Marcos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
57.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
John Castaneda
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2017
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
Dan Hooker Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
64.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 10, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
Lightweight
Ross Pearson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Dan Hooker Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.5
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.5s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 17, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz
Lightweight
Paul Felder Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
123s
Daron Cruickshank
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
55.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 31, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber
Middleweight
Dusko Todorovic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
110s
Zach Reese Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 24, 2026
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Bantamweight
Song Yadong
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
Sean O'Malley Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 24, 2026
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.3s
Modestas Bukauskas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 5, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
Welterweight
Carlston Harris Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.7
Strike accuracy
26.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
Jeremiah Wells
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
188.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Featherweight
Song Yadong Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.7
Strike accuracy
50.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
Marlon Vera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
56.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
65s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 27, 2024
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Light Heavyweight
Marcin Prachnio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
50.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Modestas Bukauskas Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
110.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
Rafael Fiziev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
62.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
56.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 30, 2022
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Welterweight
Alex Morono Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.3
Strike accuracy
54.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Matthew Semelsberger
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
32.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.7s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Oumar Sy Modestas Bukauskas
Career Record 12-2 20-7
Height 6' 4" 6' 3"
Weight 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach 83" 76"
Stance Orthodox Switch
Age 30 32

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Oumar Sy Modestas Bukauskas
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.2 14.2
Strike accuracy 48.3% 43%
Takedowns 0.8 0.1
Takedown accuracy 35% 66.7%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.0
Control time 96.8s 29.7s
Knockdowns 0 0.03
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.17
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 84.6% 71.4%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 13 28
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 51.4% 72.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.2% 17.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 29.5% 10.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 8.89 17.71
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.11 0.18
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.61 0.65
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.59 0.8
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.2 5.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No Yes
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 72.7% 70.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 36.4% 50.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 36.4% 20.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 75.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 82.9% 85.8%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.2% 9.4%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.9% 4.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:34 10:44
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,513.7 1,535.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.072 0.129
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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