FightChoice Intelligence Report

Fares Ziam
vs
Axel Sola

Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola

https://fightchoice.app/events/fares-ziam-vs-axel-sola-prediction-2026-09-05

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 15, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Fares Ziam Axel Sola
Deep Learning Model α 16% weight 51.9% 48.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 16.7% 83.3%
Statistical Model δ 19% weight 38.4% 61.6%
Statistical Model β 22% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 20% weight 56.4% 43.6%
Ensemble 38.0% 62.0%
Predicted Winner
Axel Sola
62.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
52% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Fares Ziam Axel Sola
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 30, 2011
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
Welterweight
Rory MacDonald Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
70%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
104.3s
Nate Diaz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 22, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
Heavyweight
Jared Vanderaa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40.3
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Justin Tafa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
50.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
Featherweight
Jason Knight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
33%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
138.7s
Makwan Amirkhani Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 13, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Featherweight
Morgan Charriere
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Melquizael Costa Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Lightweight
Eddie Alvarez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45
Strike accuracy
57.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
29.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 8, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
Lightweight
Melvin Guillard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
21.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Michael Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 28, 2011
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
Lightweight
Rafaello Oliveira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Gleison Tibau Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
33.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
70.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 2, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Lightweight
Chris Duncan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Mateusz Rebecki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 4, 2016
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
Lightweight
King Green
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dustin Poirier Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m53s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 8, 2016
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Middleweight
Anthony Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Cezar Ferreira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
58.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
173s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2023
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
78.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.7s
Trevin Jones
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
29%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
33s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 28, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
Welterweight
Nicholas Musoke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
28.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85s
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
38.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 21, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Featherweight
Ricardo Lamas Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
52.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.7s
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
34.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 28, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Women's Flyweight
Casey O'Neill Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
37.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Gabriella Fernandes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
24.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Lightweight
Mitch Clarke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
54.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51.7s
Michael Chiesa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
107.7s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Fares Ziam Axel Sola
Career Record 18-5 12-1-1
Height 6' 1" 6' 2"
Weight 155 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 75" 74"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 29 28

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Fares Ziam Axel Sola
Per Round Average
Strikes 13.0 20.4
Strike accuracy 52.4% 50.4%
Takedowns 0.6 0.6
Takedown accuracy 42.9% 36.4%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.1
Control time 79s 63.9s
Knockdowns 0.07 0.29
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 78.3% 81.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 23 11
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 65.6% 83.9%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.5% 16.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 15.9% 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 7.67 20.57
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.7 0.14
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.6 0.81
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.79 2.76
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.6 0.33
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 61.1% 55.6%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 33.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 27.8% 22.2%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 60.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 69.7% 69.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 12.6% 23.8%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 17.7% 7.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:12 10:35
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,575.6 1,514.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.248 0.065
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

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